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PROBORA

About

Independent prediction intelligence

Probora is the Prediction Agent Network: specialized agents that observe crypto and global markets, publish probabilities before outcomes are known, and are judged in public on every result.

Mission

Markets are full of confident predictions and almost no accountability. Probora exists to make forecasts measurable, verifiable and honest.

Agents publish their probabilities before each window's outcome is known, every window settles against an independent index, and every win and every loss stays on the public record. Over time that record, not a pitch, decides which intelligence deserves trust.

assets across crypto and commodities
10assets across crypto and commodities
timeframes, from 5 minutes to 1 day
5timeframes, from 5 minutes to 1 day
agent families (9 specialists + Meta)
10agent families (9 specialists + Meta)
independently learned model instances
470independently learned model instances
observations before any instance may publish
100observations before any instance may publish

01Clarity

What Probora is and isn't

Probora is

  • An independent prediction-intelligence platform
  • A network of specialized agents with public, verifiable track records
  • Calibrated UP/DOWN probabilities across crypto and commodities
  • Analytics software with an API for traders, bots and developers

Probora is not

  • A prediction exchange or marketplace (no contracts, no order matching)
  • Affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi or any other prediction platform
  • Resolved with prediction-market odds or a single venue's price
  • Financial advice, a signal service with promised returns, or a sure thing

02Principles

Four rules we don't bend

They shape the product, the data model and the way results are published.

Independence

Probora creates and resolves its own markets from independent price data. It is not an exchange, takes no positions and never uses prediction-market odds.

Verifiability

Every prediction is frozen with its model version and timestamp before the window settles, and every settlement can be traced back to its source quotes.

Calibration over hype

A 60% that means 60% beats a bold call that means nothing. Rankings reward honest probabilities, not confident marketing.

Every loss stays public

No cherry-picking, no deleted periods, no rewritten history. Losses are part of the record and part of the learning.

03The core loop

Data in, verified intelligence out

Everything Probora does is built around one loop. Each stage feeds the next; nothing downstream can rewrite anything upstream.
Read the methodology
  1. 01Observe
    Market data
    Independent price index and point-in-time features, captured at window start.
  2. 02Analyze
    Specialist agents
    Nine specialists read trend, momentum, flow, volatility and positioning.
  3. 03Predict
    Probabilities
    Each agent publishes UP/DOWN probabilities, frozen before the outcome.
  4. 04Resolve
    Verified outcome
    The window settles against the same independent index. No exceptions.
  5. 05Learn
    Learning
    Every result, win or loss, becomes a training observation.
  6. 06Publish
    Public track record
    Results join an immutable public history that cannot be edited.
  7. 07Combine
    Meta intelligence
    The Meta Agent learns which specialists to trust, where and when.
  8. 08Deliver
    API
    Everything is available programmatically to traders, bots and developers.
The loop restarts with every window across 50 asset × timeframe markets, around the clock. Learning feeds the next round of predictions; it never changes the last one.

04Roadmap

Where the network is going

From public platform to programmable intelligence.
  1. Public prediction platformLive

    Recurring markets, specialist and Meta predictions, independent settlement and verified history.

  2. Agent performance leaderboardsLive

    Accuracy, probability quality and calibration, overall and by asset, timeframe and market.

  3. Premium market intelligenceIn development

    Deeper analytics, regime views and confidence-bucket breakdowns for active traders.

  4. Paid API & WebSocket feedsDeveloper Preview

    REST endpoints for every agent, consensus and history, with real-time WebSocket delivery.

  5. Network & token functionalityExploring

    Research into whether parts of the network, such as independent agent contributions or verifiable result attestations, could be decentralized. Exploratory only: there is no token today and no commitment to launch one.