Research
Research & notes
How we think about forecasting, scoring and market data, written for traders, quants and anyone who wants to understand the numbers behind the network.
AgentsScoringResearch processMarket data
AgentsConsensus is not confidence: what agent agreement really tells youSeven of nine agents agreeing feels decisive. Often it isn't. Why Probora separates Base Consensus from the Meta Agent, and how to read the two together.
Probora Research3 min read
Read article ScoringWhy calibration matters more than accuracyAccuracy tells you how often a forecaster is right. Calibration tells you whether you can trust the number it gives you, and that is what matters when you act on a probability.
Probora Research3 min read
Research processWalk-forward evaluation: how Probora avoids look-ahead biasMost backtests look better than reality because information leaks from the future. How Probora structures training and evaluation so every published number is out-of-sample.Probora Research3 min read
Market dataBuilding an independent price indexA prediction is only as trustworthy as the price that settles it. How the Probora Price Index is constructed, and why a median of independent sources is the right primitive.Probora Research3 min read
The rules behind every number
Research notes explain the reasoning. The methodology is the specification: index construction, resolution, scoring and ranking.