Is Probora a prediction market or an exchange?

No. Probora does not sell contracts, take positions or match orders, and it is not affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi or any other prediction platform. It never uses prediction-market odds. Probora creates and resolves its own standardized markets using independent external price data and publishes analytics about them.

How is a market resolved?

At the exact start of each window Probora fixes the Price To Beat from the Probora Price Index, the median of independent sources (Binance, OKX and Coinbase for most crypto). At the end of the window the same index gives the Settlement Price. Higher settles UP, lower settles DOWN, and an exact tie is recorded as FLAT, never forced into a direction.

What is the difference between Base Consensus and the Meta Agent?

Base Consensus is a transparent count of the nine specialists, for example 7 / 9 UP. The Meta Agent is not a tenth vote: it learns which specialists have been reliable for each market, timeframe and regime and produces its own independent probability, such as UP 67%.

Why do some agents show “Insufficient Data”?

Every model instance (agent × asset × timeframe) learns from market #1, but it may only publish once it has resolved at least 100 observations. Until then the public output is Insufficient Data. Training history is never retroactively turned into public predictions.

Can predictions be edited or deleted after the fact?

No. Predictions are frozen at window start with their model version and timestamp, and every result, win or loss, stays in the public history. There is no cherry-picking and no deletion of bad periods.

Is Probora financial advice?

No. Probora is analytics and market-intelligence software. Predictions are probabilistic, can be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always make your own decisions.

14 live markets·10 agents·470 model instances

The Prediction
Agent Network

Specialized agents continuously learn from market data to predict UP or DOWN across crypto and global markets.

Explore Markets View Leaderboard Explore API

Predictions frozen before settlement
Every loss stays public
Independent price index

Markets resolved: 21; since network genesis
Predictions published: 305; frozen before settlement
Meta Agent accuracy: Building; 16 / 100 public results
Training observations: 363.5K; wins and losses alike

01Live markets

Every window, frozen and verified.

Probora opens a new UP/DOWN market for every asset and timeframe on exact UTC boundaries. Predictions are published at the open and scored at settlement.

All 14 markets

BTC Up or Down

15 Min · 02:30 → 02:45 UTC

Live

Price to beat

$64,452.17

Index

$64,766.03

Base consensus

Meta

ETH Up or Down

15 Min · 02:30 → 02:45 UTC

Live

Price to beat

$1,802.86

Index

$1,810.35

Base consensus

Meta

SOL Up or Down

5 Min · 02:40 → 02:45 UTC

Live

Price to beat

$70.90

Index

$71.01

Base consensus

Meta

BNB Up or Down

15 Min · 02:30 → 02:45 UTC

Live

Price to beat

$588.32

Index

$590.99

Base consensus

Meta

XRP Up or Down

1 Hour · 03:00 → 04:00 UTC

Upcoming

Price to beat

—

Index

$0.9491

Base consensus

Meta

GOLD Up or Down

4 Hours · session closed

Closed

Last index

$3,887.85

Next open

Nov 16, 00:00 UTC

The underlying market is closed for the weekend. New 4 hours windows open as soon as trading resumes.

Opens in21:16:05

0210 prediction agents

Nine specialists. One Meta Agent.

Each specialist reads the market through a single discipline and learns separately for every asset and timeframe. The Meta Agent learns when to trust whom.

Meet the agents

MetaRank #10

Meta Agent

Combines intelligence from all specialist agents to produce a unified prediction.

Analyzes: agent agreement, historical reliability, market conditions and cross-agent signals.

Accuracy (early): 6.3%
Markets: 16

Profile

Specialist 01Rank #4

Trend Agent

Specializes in directional market structure and trend persistence.

Analyzes: moving-average structure, directional strength, price structure, trend acceleration and multi-horizon momentum.

Accuracy (early): 11.8%
Markets: 17

Profile

Specialist 02Rank #5

Momentum Agent

Specializes in detecting strengthening or weakening price momentum.

Analyzes: price velocity, momentum shifts, volume behavior and directional acceleration.

Accuracy (early): 5.9%
Markets: 17

Profile

Specialist 03Rank #6

Mean Reversion Agent

Specializes in identifying stretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium.

Analyzes: price deviation, market extremes, relative positioning and reversion pressure.

Accuracy (early): 11.8%
Markets: 17

Profile

Specialist 04Rank #7

RSI Divergence Agent

Specializes in detecting momentum divergence and potential directional reversals.

Analyzes: relative strength behavior, divergence structures and momentum exhaustion.

Accuracy (early): 17.6%
Markets: 17

Profile

Specialist 05Rank #2

Order Flow Agent

Specializes in real-time buying and selling pressure.

Analyzes: market depth, order imbalance, aggressive trading activity and liquidity behavior.

Accuracy (early): 76.5%
Markets: 17

Profile

Specialist 06Rank #8

Volatility Agent

Specializes in identifying volatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions.

Analyzes: market range, volatility shifts, compression, expansion and price instability.

Accuracy (early): 43.8%
Markets: 16

Profile

Specialist 07Rank #1

Liquidation Agent

Specializes in leveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions.

Analyzes: liquidation activity, leverage stress, cascade behavior and directional pressure.

Accuracy (early): 93.8%
Markets: 16

Profile

Specialist 08Rank #9

OI/Funding Agent

Specializes in derivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment.

Analyzes: open-interest behavior, funding conditions, positioning changes and leverage imbalance.

Accuracy (early): 37.5%
Markets: 16

Profile

Specialist 09Rank #3

Whale Flow Agent

Specializes in detecting significant activity from large market participants.

Analyzes: large transactions, unusual capital flows and major participant behavior.

Accuracy (early): 56.3%
Markets: 16

Profile

03How Probora works

A closed loop from data to verified intelligence.

Market data becomes specialist probabilities, probabilities become verified outcomes, and every outcome, right or wrong, becomes learning.

01 Observe
Independent market data
Spot quotes from independent venues form the Probora Price Index. At the exact window start, the Price To Beat is fixed and a complete feature snapshot is captured.
02 Predict
Specialists, then Meta
Nine specialist agents publish UP/DOWN probabilities from their own discipline. The Meta Agent weighs their historical reliability and produces an independent call.
03 Verify
Frozen, then resolved
Predictions are frozen with model version and timestamp before settlement. At window end the same index settles the market and every agent is scored.
04 Learn
Every result is data
Wins and losses alike become training observations. Models retrain on chronological data only, never on the future, and the public record keeps growing.

04Independent price resolution

Our own index. Our own markets.

Probora is not a prediction exchange and never uses prediction-market odds. Every window is resolved by the Probora Price Index, the median of independent spot sources.

Median of independent sources. Binance, OKX and Coinbase for most crypto, never a prediction exchange's odds.
Quorum and outlier filters. At least 2 fresh sources; any quote more than 50 bps from the median is excluded.
Deterministic outcome. Settlement above the Price To Beat is UP, below is DOWN. An exact tie is FLAT and is never forced into a direction.

Read the methodology

T₀ · 20:00:00 UTC

BTC · 15 Min

Market start

Binance76,232
OKX76,228
Coinbase76,230

Median → Price To Beat$76,230

T₁ · 20:15:00 UTC

BTC · 15 Min

Settlement

Binance76,239
OKX76,241
Coinbase76,237

Median → Settlement$76,239

76,239 > 76,230

Outcome UP

Worked example from the specification. Live markets use the same rules.

05Live agent leaderboard

Ranked on accuracy, probability quality and calibration.

Accuracy is what you see first. Rankings also reward honest probabilities, so an agent cannot climb by being loud.

Full leaderboard

Rank	Agent	Markets	Accuracy	Prob. Score	Calibration	Overall
1	Liquidation AgentLeveraged-market liquidation pressure and squeeze conditions	16	93.8%Early	+6.4%	0.0	3.8
2	Order Flow AgentReal-time buying and selling pressure	17	76.5%Early	+1.0%	0.0	2.8
3	Whale Flow AgentSignificant activity from large market participants	16	56.3%Early	−0.7%	49.7	1.8
4	Volatility AgentVolatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions	16	43.8%Early	−7.0%	0.0	0.0
5	OI/Funding AgentDerivatives positioning and leveraged market sentiment	16	37.5%Early	−0.2%	0.0	0.0
6	RSI Divergence AgentMomentum divergence and potential directional reversals	17	17.6%Early	−18.7%	0.0	0.0
7	Trend AgentDirectional market structure and trend persistence	17	11.8%Early	−25.2%	0.0	0.0
8	Mean Reversion AgentStretched markets likely to revert toward equilibrium	17	11.8%Early	−23.2%	0.0	0.0
9	Meta AgentUnified prediction	16	6.3%Early	−44.5%	0.0	0.0
10	Momentum AgentStrengthening or weakening price momentum	17	5.9%Early	−19.8%	0.0	0.0

06Prediction intelligence

Consensus is a count. Meta is a judgment.

Base Consensus shows how many eligible specialists call each direction, for example 7 / 9 UP. It is transparent, but every vote counts the same.

The Meta Agent learns which specialists have been reliable for this exact market, timeframe and regime, and when disagreement itself is the signal. It then publishes its own probability.

BTC · 15 Min

02:30 → 02:45 UTC

01:05 Live

Trend
DOWN57.6%
Momentum
DOWN55.0%
Mean Reversion
DOWN59.3%
RSI Divergence
DOWN71.9%
Order Flow
UP51.1%
Volatility
DOWN55.5%
Liquidation
UP51.6%
OI/Funding
DOWN50.2%
Whale Flow
UP50.1%

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement among eligible specialists

Meta Agent

DOWN73.0%High

Open market →

07API for traders and developers

Plug the network into your stack.

Individual agents, Meta, consensus, history and performance, served over REST today, with a real-time WebSocket feed on the way. Developer Preview.

GET/v1/predictions/{asset}/{timeframe}/{agent}Individual agent prediction
GET/v1/predictions/{asset}/{timeframe}/metaMeta Agent prediction
GET/v1/consensus/{asset}/{timeframe}Consensus
GET/v1/history/{asset}/{timeframe}Historical predictions
GET/v1/markets/{asset}/{timeframe}/currentCurrent market
GET/v1/agents/{agent}/performanceAgent performance
WSS/v1/signalsReal-time feed · Coming soon

Explore API Read the docs

curl https://api.probora.xyz/v1/predictions/BTC/15m/order-flow \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $PROBORA_API_KEY"

200 OK · live

{
  "asset": "BTC",
  "timeframe": "15m",
  "market_id": "btc-15m-20261115-0230",
  "price_to_beat": 64452.17,
  "agent": "Order Flow",
  "agent_slug": "order-flow",
  "status": "published",
  "direction": "UP",
  "up_probability": 0.511,
  "down_probability": 0.489,
  "confidence": 0.42,
  "historical_accuracy": null,
  "sample_size": 0,
  "model_version": "orderflow-btc15-v1",
  "prediction_timestamp": "2026-11-15T02:30:05.277Z",
  "settlement_timestamp": "2026-11-15T02:45:00.000Z",
  "data_mode": "live"
}

08Performance & verification

A track record that cannot be rewritten.

Predictions are recorded before market resolution. Historical results cannot be edited. Every win and every loss remains part of the performance history.

Verified prediction history

Immutable record

Times in UTC · Every prediction is stored with its model version before the window settles. Losses stay on the record.

Meta Agent calibration

When Meta says 70%, does it win about 70% of the time?

0.0 / 100

50–55%

55–60%

60–65%

65–70%

70–75%

75%+

Share of predictions per confidence bucket

09Pricing

Start free. Scale to the full feed.

Simple plans for traders, bots and teams, with enterprise access for desks and data platforms.

Compare all plans

Free

Explore the network

Delayed predictions
Limited requests
Selected markets
Community access

Start free

Trader

Popular

Real-time signals with Meta

$99/ month

Real-time signals
All agents
Meta Agent
Consensus
Higher limits

Choose Trader

API

The full prediction feed

$299/ month

REST API
WebSocket
Full prediction feed
Historical endpoints
Higher rate limits

Get API access

10FAQ

Questions, answered.

Still curious? Read the full FAQ or the methodology.

Intelligence you can verify.

Follow the network for free, or plug the full prediction feed into your own tools.

Get started free Read the methodology

The PredictionAgent Network

Every window, frozen and verified.

Nine specialists. One Meta Agent.

A closed loop from data to verified intelligence.

Our own index. Our own markets.

Ranked on accuracy, probability quality and calibration.

Consensus is a count. Meta is a judgment.

Plug the network into your stack.

A track record that cannot be rewritten.

Start free. Scale to the full feed.

Questions, answered.

Is Probora a prediction market or an exchange?

How is a market resolved?

What is the difference between Base Consensus and the Meta Agent?

Why do some agents show “Insufficient Data”?

Can predictions be edited or deleted after the fact?

Is Probora financial advice?

Intelligence you can verify.

The Prediction
Agent Network