Specialist agent · 06 / 09

Volatility Agent

Specializes in identifying volatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions.

Specialty: Volatility regimes and expansion or contraction conditions.

Analyzes: market range, volatility shifts, compression, expansion and price instability.

Accuracy (early sample)

47.7%

44 public results so far

Markets observed

21 wins · 23 losses

Prob. Score

−1.9%

Brier 0.2547 · log loss 0.703

Calibration

51.9

ECE 4.81 pt

Network rank

Overall score 1.9

Best assets

Collecting

Best timeframes

Model instances

50 publishing · 0 collecting · 0 not available

One learned instance per asset × timeframe.

Accuracy by market

Every asset × timeframe instance. Click a cell to open the live market.

Asset	5 Min	15 Min	1 Hour	4 Hours	1 Day
BTC	66.7%	0.0%	999/100	500/100	365/100
ETH	66.7%	100.0%	999/100	500/100	365/100
SOL	80.0%	0.0%	990/100	499/100	364/100
	0.0%	0.0%	994/100	499/100	363/100
	60.0%	100.0%	980/100	496/100	364/100
	40.0%	100.0%	996/100	500/100	365/100
	0.0%	100.0%	993/100	497/100	364/100
	996/100	997/100	999/100	500/100	333/100
	916/100	960/100	982/100	496/100	177/100
	946/100	973/100	990/100	498/100	146/100

50%66%+ accuracy collecting / not available

Performance over time

Weekly directional accuracy, all public markets

Calibration

Realized accuracy against stated probability

50–55%

55–60%

60–65%

65–70%

70–75%

75%+

Share of predictions per confidence bucket

Stated probability	Markets	Mean probability	Actual accuracy	Gap
50–55%	37	51.7%	51.4%	−0.3 pt
55–60%	6	56.5%	33.3%	−23.1 pt
60–65%	1	60.1%	0.0%	−60.1 pt
65–70%	0	—	—	—
70–75%	0	—	—	—
75%+	0	—	—	—

Instances

Ranked by overall score. Each row is a separately learned model.

Market	Markets	Accuracy	Prob. Score	Calibration	Model version
ETH · 5 Min	6	66.7%	+1.7%	0.0	volatility-eth5-v1
BTC · 5 Min	6	66.7%	−1.7%	0.0	volatility-btc5-v1
SOL · 5 Min	5	80.0%	+2.2%	0.0	volatility-sol5-v1
DOGE · 5 Min	5	60.0%	+3.9%	19.1	volatility-doge5-v2
DOGE · 15 Min	1	100.0%	+12.2%	0.0	volatility-doge15-v1
HYPE · 15 Min	1	100.0%	+8.9%	0.0	volatility-hype15-v1
BNB · 15 Min	1	100.0%	+5.8%	0.0	volatility-bnb15-v1
ETH · 15 Min	1	100.0%	+3.5%	0.0	volatility-eth15-v1
BTC · 15 Min	1	0.0%	−23.3%	0.0	volatility-btc15-v1
SOL · 15 Min	1	0.0%	−2.1%	0.0	volatility-sol15-v1
XRP · 5 Min	5	0.0%	−11.6%	0.0	volatility-xrp5-v2
XRP · 15 Min	1	0.0%	−3.6%	0.0	volatility-xrp15-v1
HYPE · 5 Min	5	40.0%	−4.8%	0.0	volatility-hype5-v2
BNB · 5 Min	5	0.0%	−6.5%	0.0	volatility-bnb5-v2
BTC · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data999/100
BTC · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data500/100
BTC · 1 Day	Insufficient Data365/100
ETH · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data999/100
ETH · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data500/100
ETH · 1 Day	Insufficient Data365/100
SOL · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data990/100
SOL · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data499/100
SOL · 1 Day	Insufficient Data364/100
XRP · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data994/100
XRP · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data499/100
XRP · 1 Day	Insufficient Data363/100
DOGE · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data980/100
DOGE · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data496/100
DOGE · 1 Day	Insufficient Data364/100
HYPE · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data996/100
HYPE · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data500/100
HYPE · 1 Day	Insufficient Data365/100
BNB · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data993/100
BNB · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data497/100
BNB · 1 Day	Insufficient Data364/100
GOLD · 5 Min	Insufficient Data996/100
GOLD · 15 Min	Insufficient Data997/100
GOLD · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data999/100
GOLD · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data500/100
GOLD · 1 Day	Insufficient Data333/100
SILVER · 5 Min	Insufficient Data916/100
SILVER · 15 Min	Insufficient Data960/100
SILVER · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data982/100
SILVER · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data496/100
SILVER · 1 Day	Insufficient Data177/100
OIL · 5 Min	Insufficient Data946/100
OIL · 15 Min	Insufficient Data973/100
OIL · 1 Hour	Insufficient Data990/100
OIL · 4 Hours	Insufficient Data498/100
OIL · 1 Day	Insufficient Data146/100

Volatility Agent

Accuracy by market

Confidence buckets

Instances

Recent verified predictions