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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

02:45 → 02:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:45 → 02:50 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0245

Settled

Nov 15, 02:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,810.47
Index at 02:45:00

Final index

$1,810.06

Settlement price

$1,810.06
Index at 02:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,808.691,812.421,814.2902:4502:4602:4702:4802:50PTB 1,810.47

Settlement $1,810.06

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN57.6%High
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
22.2%
9 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 02:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.6%
UP 48.4%51.6% DOWN
Medium22.2%9 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium44.4%9 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.8%
UP 43.2%56.8% DOWN
Medium22.2%9 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Medium22.2%9 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP53.2%
UP 53.2%46.8% DOWN
Low44.4%9 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Medium55.6%9 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low77.8%9 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low66.7%9 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low44.4%9 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:45:00 UTC

02:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,810.44ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,810.47ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps1,810.56ok
Median of 3 sources$1,810.47

Settlement · 02:50:00 UTC

02:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps1,809.92ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,810.06ok
  • Coinbase+1.2 bps1,810.27ok
Median of 3 sources$1,810.06

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:40 → 02:45Nov 151,808.301,810.47UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.6%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 151,801.911,808.30UP5 / 9 UPDOWN61.3%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 151,802.861,801.91DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%WIN
02:25 → 02:30Nov 151,792.661,802.86UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent77.8%9 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent66.7%9 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent55.6%9 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent44.4%9 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent44.4%9 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent44.4%9 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology