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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

02:30 → 02:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:30 → 02:35 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0230

Settled

Nov 15, 02:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,802.86
Index at 02:30:00

Final index

$1,801.91

Settlement price

$1,801.91
Index at 02:35:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,800.711,806.061,808.7302:3002:3102:3202:3302:35PTB 1,802.86

Settlement $1,801.91

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.7%High
UP 40.3%59.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
27.3%
11 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 02:30:05 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium27.3%11 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium54.5%11 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.5%
UP 40.5%59.5% DOWN
Medium27.3%11 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium27.3%11 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.4%
UP 52.4%47.6% DOWN
Low45.5%11 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Medium63.6%11 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Low72.7%11 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low63.6%11 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low36.4%11 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:30:00 UTC

02:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps1,802.75ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,802.86ok
  • Coinbase+0.4 bps1,802.93ok
Median of 3 sources$1,802.86

Settlement · 02:35:00 UTC

02:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.3 bps1,801.86ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+4.9 bps1,802.78ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,801.91ok
Median of 3 sources$1,801.91

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:25 → 02:30Nov 151,792.661,802.86UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent72.7%11 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent63.6%11 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent63.6%11 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.5%11 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent45.5%11 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent36.4%11 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology