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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

02:45 → 02:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:45 → 02:50 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0245

Settled

Nov 15, 02:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,791.90
Index at 02:45:00

Final index

$64,717.55

Settlement price

$64,717.55
Index at 02:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,680.4164,728.4664,776.5164,824.5602:4502:4602:4702:4802:50PTB 64,791.90

Settlement $64,717.55

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.5%Medium
UP 40.5%59.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
14.3%
7 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 02:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN57.8%
UP 42.2%57.8% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.0%
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.7%
UP 42.3%57.7% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Low71.4%7 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP53.1%
UP 53.1%46.9% DOWN
Medium71.4%7 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low85.7%7 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low14.3%7 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low42.9%7 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:45:00 UTC

02:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,788.57ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,793.76ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,791.90ok
Median of 3 sources$64,791.90

Settlement · 02:50:00 UTC

02:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.3 bps64,715.66ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,717.55ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps64,718.51ok
Median of 3 sources$64,717.55

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:40 → 02:45Nov 1564,670.7064,791.90UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 1564,666.8164,670.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 1564,452.1764,666.81UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:25 → 02:30Nov 1564,203.1864,452.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent85.7%7 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent71.4%7 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent71.4%7 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent42.9%7 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent28.6%7 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent14.3%7 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology