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PROBORA

Bitcoin · 5 Min

BTC 5 Minute Prediction

Will BTC finish UP or DOWN this 5 min window? Nine specialists and the Meta Agent publish their probabilities at the open; the Probora Price Index settles the result.
Live03:00 → 03:05 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0300

Settles in

00:59

Price to beat

$64,873.66
Index at 03:00:00

Current index

$65,301.83
+428.17(0.660%)

Settlement price

—
Fixed at settlement

Outcome

Pending
Resolves at 03:05:00
65,072.3865,290.6765,508.9703:0003:0103:0203:0303:05PTB 64,873.66
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists
DOWN60.1%Medium
UP 39.9%60.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
14.3%
7 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 03:00:08 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Next window

03:05 → 03:10 UTC

Predictions publish at the open, never earlier, and are never edited.

Opens in

00:59

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Results appear the moment the window settles.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracy
Trend AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 markets
Momentum AgentDOWN60.7%
UP 39.3%60.7% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 markets
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.6%
UP 41.4%58.6% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 markets
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 markets
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Low71.4%7 markets
Volatility AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Medium71.4%7 markets
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low85.7%7 markets
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low14.3%7 markets
Whale Flow AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low42.9%7 markets

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:00:00 UTC

03:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps64,877.16ok
  • Coinbase−1.7 bps64,862.78ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,873.66ok
Median of 3 sources$64,873.66

Current index

03:03:59 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,303.83ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,301.83ok
  • Coinbase−2.0 bps65,289.06ok
Median of 3 sources$65,301.83

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1564,781.2264,873.66UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1564,717.5564,781.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 1564,791.9064,717.55DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 1564,670.7064,791.90UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 1564,666.8164,670.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 1564,452.1764,666.81UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:25 → 02:30Nov 1564,203.1864,452.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent85.7%7 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent71.4%7 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent71.4%7 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent42.9%7 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent28.6%7 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent14.3%7 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology