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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

02:25 → 02:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:25 → 02:30 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0225

Settled

Nov 15, 02:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,203.18
Index at 02:25:00

Final index

$64,452.17

Settlement price

$64,452.17
Index at 02:30:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,318.6064,422.8064,526.9902:2502:2602:2702:2802:30PTB 64,203.18

Settlement $64,452.17

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN70.8%High
UP 29.2%70.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
14.3%
7 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 02:25:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Next window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN61.0%
UP 39.0%61.0% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN58.8%
UP 41.2%58.8% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN60.0%
UP 40.0%60.0% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN59.2%
UP 40.8%59.2% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.3%
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Low71.4%7 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium71.4%7 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low85.7%7 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low42.9%7 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:25:00 UTC

02:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.7 bps64,207.59ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,203.18ok
  • Coinbase−1.3 bps64,195.02ok
Median of 3 sources$64,203.18

Settlement · 02:30:00 UTC

02:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.4 bps64,449.87ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps64,453.51ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,452.17ok
Median of 3 sources$64,452.17

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

No resolved windows yet

This market is newly observed.

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent85.7%7 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent71.4%7 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent71.4%7 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent42.9%7 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent28.6%7 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent14.3%7 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology