Skip to content
PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

02:40 → 02:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:40 → 02:45 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0240

Settled

Nov 15, 02:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,670.70
Index at 02:40:00

Final index

$64,791.90

Settlement price

$64,791.90
Index at 02:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,544.7064,633.4164,722.1264,810.8302:4002:4102:4202:4302:45PTB 64,670.70

Settlement $64,791.90

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN61.1%Medium
UP 38.9%61.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
14.3%
7 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 02:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous windowNext window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN60.2%
UP 39.8%60.2% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN55.7%
UP 44.3%55.7% DOWN
Medium14.3%7 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.7%
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Medium28.6%7 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low71.4%7 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Medium71.4%7 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low85.7%7 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low14.3%7 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low42.9%7 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:40:00 UTC

02:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps64,665.71ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,670.70ok
  • Coinbase+1.2 bps64,678.29ok
Median of 3 sources$64,670.70

Settlement · 02:45:00 UTC

02:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,788.57ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,793.76ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,791.90ok
Median of 3 sources$64,791.90

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:35 → 02:40Nov 1564,666.8164,670.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 1564,452.1764,666.81UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:25 → 02:30Nov 1564,203.1864,452.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent85.7%7 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent71.4%7 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent71.4%7 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent42.9%7 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent28.6%7 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent14.3%7 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology