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PROBORA

Commodity · GOLD

Gold (GOLD) Prediction

Gold (XAU/USD) is a macro market driven by real yields, the US dollar and safe-haven demand. Its lower volatility and pronounced mean-reverting intraday behavior make it a strong test of calibration: probabilities closer to 50% are often the honest answer.

Probora Price Index · GOLD/USD

$3,887.85

0.00% past 24h

Tick size
0.01
Sources
4 · median
24h low / high
3,875.90 / 3,922.71

Live index composition

22:00:00 UTC
  • Binance Futures—3,889.37ok
  • OKX Perpetuals—3,889.32ok
  • Bybit Perpetuals—3,889.54ok
Median of 3 sources$3,889.37

Index rules

  • Median of 4 independent sources
  • Quotes older than 5s are excluded
  • Outliers beyond 50 bps are dropped
  • At least 2 sources or the window is VOID
  • USDT venues normalized to USD
  • Rounded to the 0.01 tick before comparison

GOLD windows

The gold market is closed right now. Every timeframe reopens automatically when trading resumes.

GOLD Up or Down

5 Min · session closed

Closed

Last index

$3,887.85

Next open

Nov 15, 23:00 UTC

The underlying market is closed for the weekend. New 5 min windows open as soon as trading resumes.
Opens in20:01:10

GOLD Up or Down

15 Min · session closed

Closed

Last index

$3,887.85

Next open

Nov 15, 23:00 UTC

The underlying market is closed for the weekend. New 15 min windows open as soon as trading resumes.
Opens in20:01:10

GOLD Up or Down

1 Hour · session closed

Closed

Last index

$3,887.85

Next open

Nov 15, 23:00 UTC

The underlying market is closed for the weekend. New 1 hour windows open as soon as trading resumes.
Opens in20:01:10

GOLD Up or Down

4 Hours · session closed

Closed

Last index

$3,887.85

Next open

Nov 16, 00:00 UTC

The underlying market is closed for the weekend. New 4 hours windows open as soon as trading resumes.
Opens in21:01:10

GOLD Up or Down

1 Day · session closed

Closed

Last index

$3,887.85

Next open

Nov 16, 00:00 UTC

The underlying market is closed for the weekend. New 1 day windows open as soon as trading resumes.
Opens in21:01:10

Best agents on GOLD

All timeframes pooled. Each agent learns separately per timeframe.

GOLD leaderboard

Agents are still collecting observations

Rankings appear once agents publish public predictions.

Not available on GOLD: Liquidation Agent, OI/Funding Agent. These agents require leveraged-derivatives data.

Verified GOLD history

No verified predictions yet

What moves GOLD

  • Real yields and US dollar strength
  • Safe-haven demand during risk-off episodes
  • Mean reversion around session ranges
  • Trend persistence on multi-day horizons

Timeframes

GOLD prediction FAQ

More in the methodology.