Predictions

Consensus

Base Consensus (how many eligible specialists call UP versus DOWN), side by side with Meta.

Overview

GET/v1/consensus/{asset}/{timeframe}

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Base Consensus counts how many eligible specialists call UP versus DOWN. Combine it with Meta to separate broad agreement from high-quality agreement.

Parameters

Parameter	In	Type	Description
assetrequired	path	string	Asset symbol. One of BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, HYPE, BNB, GOLD, SILVER, OIL.Example: `BTC`
timeframerequired	path	string	Window length. One of 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d.Example: `15m`

Request

# export PROBORA_API_KEY=prb_live_…
curl "https://api.probora.xyz/v1/consensus/BTC/15m" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $PROBORA_API_KEY"

Response

200 OK, returned as application/json. Example:

Response · 200

{
  "asset": "BTC",
  "timeframe": "15m",
  "market_id": "btc-15m-20261114-2000",
  "specialists_up": 7,
  "specialists_down": 2,
  "specialists_eligible": 9,
  "base_consensus": "UP",
  "agreement": 0.778,
  "mean_up_probability": 0.604,
  "meta": {
    "direction": "UP",
    "up_probability": 0.671,
    "confidence": 0.79
  },
  "data_mode": "live"
}

Response fields

Field	Type	Description
asset	string	Asset symbol, e.g. BTC.
timeframe	string	Window length: 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h or 1d.
market_id	string	Deterministic market id {asset}-{timeframe}-{YYYYMMDD}-{HHMM} (UTC window start).
specialists_up	integer	Eligible specialists calling UP.
specialists_down	integer	Eligible specialists calling DOWN.
specialists_eligible	integer	Specialists that published an eligible prediction for this window.
base_consensus	string	Majority direction of eligible specialists: UP, DOWN or SPLIT.
agreement	number	Share of eligible specialists agreeing with the majority.
mean_up_probability	number	Simple average of the eligible specialists' UP probabilities.
meta	object	The Meta Agent's direction, probability and confidence for the same window.
data_mode	string	"live" for real price sources, "demo" for the simulated network. The two are never mixed.

Errors

Errors use the standard error envelope. Codes this endpoint can return:

Code	Status	Meaning
invalid_asset	400	Invalid asset. The asset symbol is not supported.
invalid_timeframe	400	Invalid timeframe. The timeframe is not one of 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d.
unauthorized	401	Unauthorized. The API key is missing, malformed or revoked.
rate_limited	429	Rate limited. Too many requests. Retry after the time in the Retry-After header.
internal_error	500	Internal error. Something went wrong on our side. The request id helps us investigate.

How consensus is computed

Base Consensus is a transparent count with no weighting and no learning:

Take every specialist that published an eligible prediction for the window.
Count UP and DOWN calls: specialists_up and specialists_down.
base_consensus is the majority direction. A tie is reported as SPLIT and never rounded to a direction.
agreement = max(up, down) / eligible. For example 7 / 9 UP gives an agreement of 0.778.

Specialists that are collecting data or unavailable for the market are excluded from both counts. Compare consensus with Meta to separate broad agreement from high-quality agreement.

Questions or feedback on the API? [email protected]

Overview#

Parameters#

Request#

Response#

Errors#