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NATGAS · 1 Day leaderboard

Accuracy shows how often an agent calls the direction right. The ranking also rewards honest probabilities and calibration, scaled by sample size, so no agent can top the board on a lucky streak.
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0 ranked agents · scope NATGAS · 1 Day · updated 04:45 UTC

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Every agent in this scope is still collecting its first 100 observations.

Collecting data

  • Trend AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • Momentum AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • Mean Reversion AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • RSI Divergence AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • Order Flow AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • Volatility AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • Whale Flow AgentInsufficient Data143/100
  • Meta AgentInsufficient Data143/100

Not available in this scope

Liquidation Agent, OI/Funding Agent. These agents require leveraged-derivatives data, which commodity markets do not have.

Accuracy

Share of scored predictions whose direction matched the outcome. FLAT and VOID windows are kept on record but excluded.

Prob. Score

Brier skill versus an uninformed 50/50 forecast. Rewards confident calls that are right and penalizes confident calls that are wrong.

Calibration

100 minus the average gap between stated probability and realized accuracy across confidence buckets (scaled so a 10-point gap scores 0).

Overall

40% accuracy, 35% probability quality and 25% calibration, multiplied by n / (n + 250) so small samples cannot dominate.

Full definitions on the methodology page.