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PROBORA

Market record

LINK Up or Down · 5 Min

10:30 → 10:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:30 → 10:35 UTC

Market ID link-5m-20261115-1030

Settled

Nov 15, 10:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$9.247
Index at 10:30:00

Final index

$9.250

Settlement price

$9.250
Index at 10:35:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
9.2519.2579.26210:3010:3110:3210:3310:35PTB 9.247

Settlement $9.250

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN63.7%High
UP 36.3%63.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.1%
102 markets
Model version
meta-link5-v1
published 10:30:09 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium45.1%102 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN57.0%
UP 43.0%57.0% DOWN
Medium44.1%102 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.0%
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Medium46.1%102 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.9%
UP 45.1%54.9% DOWN
Medium43.1%102 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Low43.1%102 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Medium41.2%102 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low58.8%102 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low53.9%102 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low45.1%102 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for LINK: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:30:00 UTC

10:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps9.247ok
  • Coinbase−1.1 bps9.246ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps9.247ok
Median of 3 sources$9.247

Settlement · 10:35:00 UTC

10:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−6.0 bps9.244ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps9.250ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.1 bps9.251ok
Median of 3 sources$9.250

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min LINK windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:25 → 10:30Nov 159.2529.247DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 159.2529.252FLAT7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.0%PUSH
10:15 → 10:20Nov 159.2679.252DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.5%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 159.2619.267UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.4%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 159.2399.261UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.5%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 159.2149.239UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 159.2279.214DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN66.6%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 159.2229.227UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.5%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 159.2459.222DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.1%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 159.2269.245UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.9%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 159.2109.226UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.3%LOSS
09:30 → 09:35Nov 159.2409.210DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on LINK · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · LINK 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent58.8%102 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent53.9%102 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent45.1%102 mkts
  4. 4Order Flow Agent43.1%102 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent46.1%102 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent45.1%102 mkts

About this market

Chainlink · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology