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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 15 Min

02:30 → 02:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:30 → 02:45 UTC

Market ID btc-15m-20261115-0230

Settled

Nov 15, 02:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,452.17
Index at 02:30:00

Final index

$64,791.90

Settlement price

$64,791.90
Index at 02:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,405.2564,563.6864,722.1264,880.5502:3002:3302:3702:4102:45PTB 64,452.17

Settlement $64,791.90

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN73.0%High
UP 27.0%73.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
0.0%
2 markets
Model version
meta-btc15-v1
published 02:30:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Next window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium0.0%2 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium0.0%2 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.3%
UP 40.7%59.3% DOWN
Medium0.0%2 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN71.9%
UP 28.1%71.9% DOWN
High0.0%2 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Low50.0%2 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.5%
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Medium0.0%2 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Low100.0%2 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low0.0%2 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low100.0%2 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:30:00 UTC

02:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.4 bps64,449.87ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps64,453.51ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,452.17ok
Median of 3 sources$64,452.17

Settlement · 02:45:00 UTC

02:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,788.57ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,793.76ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,791.90ok
Median of 3 sources$64,791.90

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

No resolved windows yet

This market is newly observed.

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent100.0%2 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent100.0%2 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent50.0%2 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent0.0%2 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent0.0%2 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent0.0%2 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology