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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

13:45 → 13:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled13:45 → 13:50 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1345

Settled

Nov 15, 13:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,466.67
Index at 13:45:00

Final index

$65,492.55

Settlement price

$65,492.55
Index at 13:50:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,398.5265,428.9465,489.7913:4513:4613:4713:4813:50PTB 65,466.67

Settlement $65,492.55

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN58.0%Medium
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.1%
235 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 13:45:05 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 13:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP53.4%
UP 53.4%46.6% DOWN
Medium48.5%235 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.3%
UP 43.7%56.3% DOWN
Medium54.5%235 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium47.2%235 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium49.4%235 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium51.5%235 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN65.0%
UP 35.0%65.0% DOWN
Medium46.8%235 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.0%
UP 52.0%48.0% DOWN
Low50.6%235 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low50.2%235 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low45.1%235 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 13:45:00 UTC

13:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,466.67ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps65,465.96ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps65,467.96ok
Median of 3 sources$65,466.67

Settlement · 13:50:00 UTC

13:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.3 bps65,490.65ok
  • Coinbase+0.7 bps65,497.00ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,492.55ok
Median of 3 sources$65,492.55

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
13:40 → 13:45Nov 1565,334.8765,466.67UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
13:35 → 13:40Nov 1565,459.4065,334.87DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.2%WIN
13:30 → 13:35Nov 1565,527.9065,459.40DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.3%WIN
13:25 → 13:30Nov 1565,645.2565,527.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
13:20 → 13:25Nov 1565,585.7265,645.25UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
13:15 → 13:20Nov 1565,511.3365,585.72UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.3%LOSS
13:10 → 13:15Nov 1565,495.4065,511.33UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.2%LOSS
13:05 → 13:10Nov 1565,500.0065,495.40DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%WIN
13:00 → 13:05Nov 1565,469.9465,500.00UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.1%LOSS
12:55 → 13:00Nov 1565,469.5965,469.94UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
12:50 → 12:55Nov 1565,380.7565,469.59UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
12:45 → 12:50Nov 1565,456.0465,380.75DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent51.5%235 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.2%235 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.6%235 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.5%235 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent49.4%235 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent48.5%235 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology