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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 15 Min

02:45 → 03:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled02:45 → 03:00 UTC

Market ID eth-15m-20261115-0245

Settled

Nov 15, 03:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,810.47
Index at 02:45:00

Final index

$1,815.03

Settlement price

$1,815.03
Index at 03:00:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,806.511,813.421,816.8802:4502:4802:5202:5603:00PTB 1,810.47

Settlement $1,815.03

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN59.7%High
UP 40.3%59.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
0.0%
3 markets
Model version
meta-eth15-v1
published 02:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 02:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN61.9%
UP 38.1%61.9% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN54.2%
UP 45.8%54.2% DOWN
Medium33.3%3 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Medium0.0%3 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP53.2%
UP 53.2%46.8% DOWN
Low66.7%3 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN53.2%
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Medium66.7%3 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low100.0%3 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low66.7%3 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low66.7%3 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 02:45:00 UTC

02:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.1 bps1,810.44ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,810.47ok
  • Coinbase+0.5 bps1,810.56ok
Median of 3 sources$1,810.47

Settlement · 03:00:00 UTC

03:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps1,814.92ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps1,815.08ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,815.03ok
Median of 3 sources$1,815.03

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:30 → 02:45Nov 151,802.861,810.47UP6 / 9 UPDOWN61.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent100.0%3 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent66.7%3 mkts
  3. 3Whale Flow Agent66.7%3 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent66.7%3 mkts
  5. 5Volatility Agent66.7%3 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent33.3%3 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology