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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 15 Min

03:00 → 03:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:00 → 03:15 UTC

Market ID eth-15m-20261115-0300

Settled

Nov 15, 03:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,815.03
Index at 03:00:00

Final index

$1,822.18

Settlement price

$1,822.18
Index at 03:15:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
1,820.411,826.041,831.6803:0003:0303:0703:1103:15PTB 1,815.03

Settlement $1,822.18

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN59.6%Medium
UP 40.4%59.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
25.0%
4 markets
Model version
meta-eth15-v1
published 03:00:09 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN63.4%
UP 36.6%63.4% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%4 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.0%
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium25.0%4 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Low50.0%4 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP52.0%
UP 52.0%48.0% DOWN
Medium75.0%4 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low75.0%4 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low75.0%4 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low75.0%4 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:00:00 UTC

03:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps1,814.92ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps1,815.08ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,815.03ok
Median of 3 sources$1,815.03

Settlement · 03:15:00 UTC

03:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.1 bps1,822.19ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps1,822.18ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.0 bps1,822.01ok
Median of 3 sources$1,822.18

Recent resolved markets

The latest 15 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:45 → 03:00Nov 151,810.471,815.03UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.7%LOSS
02:30 → 02:45Nov 151,802.861,810.47UP6 / 9 UPDOWN61.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 15 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 15 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent75.0%4 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent75.0%4 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent75.0%4 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent75.0%4 mkts
  5. 5Order Flow Agent50.0%4 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent50.0%4 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 15 Minute windows

Fifteen-minute windows sit between micro-structure and intraday trend. Flow and positioning signals still dominate, but trend and volatility context starts to carry real information.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, derivatives positioning and momentum shifts.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology