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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

06:00 → 06:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:00 → 06:05 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0600

Settled

Nov 15, 06:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,799.00
Index at 06:00:00

Final index

$1,790.34

Settlement price

$1,790.34
Index at 06:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,790.131,793.471,796.821,800.1606:0006:0106:0206:0306:05PTB 1,799.00

Settlement $1,790.34

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
UP50.7%Low
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
51.4%
70 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 06:00:11 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium58.6%70 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Medium58.6%70 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Medium54.3%70 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP51.6%
UP 51.6%48.4% DOWN
Medium54.3%70 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.1%
UP 51.1%48.9% DOWN
Low55.7%70 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Medium52.9%70 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low57.1%70 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low58.6%70 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Low55.7%70 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:00:00 UTC

06:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps1,799.06ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,799.00ok
  • Coinbase−0.3 bps1,798.95ok
Median of 3 sources$1,799.00

Settlement · 06:05:00 UTC

06:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,790.34ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps1,790.20ok
  • Coinbase+0.7 bps1,790.46ok
Median of 3 sources$1,790.34

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:55 → 06:00Nov 151,803.991,799.00DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 151,805.431,803.99DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 151,806.311,805.43DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.0%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 151,805.001,806.31UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%LOSS
05:35 → 05:40Nov 151,805.951,805.00DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
05:30 → 05:35Nov 151,807.731,805.95DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.4%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 151,809.941,807.73DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 151,810.841,809.94DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.5%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 151,809.941,810.84UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.2%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 151,807.061,809.94UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 151,808.311,807.06DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP53.2%LOSS
05:00 → 05:05Nov 151,812.241,808.31DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.7%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Momentum Agent58.6%70 mkts
  2. 2Trend Agent58.6%70 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent55.7%70 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent57.1%70 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent54.3%70 mkts
  6. 6Whale Flow Agent55.7%70 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology