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PROBORA

Market record

ETH Up or Down · 5 Min

07:40 → 07:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:40 → 07:45 UTC

Market ID eth-5m-20261115-0740

Settled

Nov 15, 07:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$1,783.82
Index at 07:40:00

Final index

$1,777.99

Settlement price

$1,777.99
Index at 07:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
1,778.051,780.401,782.761,785.1107:4007:4107:4207:4307:45PTB 1,783.82

Settlement $1,777.99

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
UP50.3%Low
UP 50.3%49.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.0%
102 markets
Model version
meta-eth5-v1
published 07:40:03 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium52.9%102 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP53.3%
UP 53.3%46.7% DOWN
Medium53.9%102 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium51.0%102 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP52.0%
UP 52.0%48.0% DOWN
Medium51.0%102 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low51.0%102 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Medium52.0%102 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN51.9%
UP 48.1%51.9% DOWN
Low55.9%102 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low54.9%102 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low50.0%102 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for ETH: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:40:00 UTC

07:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,783.82ok
  • Coinbase+0.6 bps1,783.93ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,783.74ok
Median of 3 sources$1,783.82

Settlement · 07:45:00 UTC

07:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps1,777.91ok
  • Coinbase+0.7 bps1,778.12ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps1,777.99ok
Median of 3 sources$1,777.99

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min ETH windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:35 → 07:40Nov 151,786.691,783.82DOWN6 / 9 UPUP50.4%LOSS
07:30 → 07:35Nov 151,790.211,786.69DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.9%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 151,792.371,790.21DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 151,793.831,792.37DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.1%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 151,791.311,793.83UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.7%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 151,792.941,791.31DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 151,787.751,792.94UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.6%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 151,791.551,787.75DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.0%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 151,789.731,791.55UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.2%LOSS
06:50 → 06:55Nov 151,793.661,789.73DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.3%WIN
06:45 → 06:50Nov 151,795.361,793.66DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.4%WIN
06:40 → 06:45Nov 151,792.501,795.36UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on ETH · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · ETH 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent55.9%102 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent53.9%102 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent52.9%102 mkts
  4. 4Volatility Agent52.0%102 mkts
  5. 5OI/Funding Agent54.9%102 mkts
  6. 6Order Flow Agent51.0%102 mkts

About this market

Ethereum · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology