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PROBORA

Market record

BNB Up or Down · 5 Min

12:45 → 12:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:45 → 12:50 UTC

Market ID bnb-5m-20261115-1245

Settled

Nov 15, 12:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$597.49
Index at 12:45:00

Final index

$597.05

Settlement price

$597.05
Index at 12:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
596.95597.17597.39597.6112:4512:4612:4712:4812:50PTB 597.49

Settlement $597.05

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.5%Medium
UP 44.5%55.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.6%
210 markets
Model version
meta-bnb5-v1
published 12:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium49.0%210 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium48.6%210 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.9%
UP 46.1%53.9% DOWN
Medium49.0%210 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.8%
UP 42.2%57.8% DOWN
Medium49.5%210 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.5%
UP 49.5%50.5% DOWN
Low52.4%210 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN57.8%
UP 42.2%57.8% DOWN
Medium46.2%210 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.5%210 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low46.7%210 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low51.0%210 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BNB: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:45:00 UTC

12:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps597.49ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.1 bps597.50ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−3.4 bps597.29ok
Median of 3 sources$597.49

Settlement · 12:50:00 UTC

12:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.8 bps597.01ok
  • BybitUSDT→USD+0.5 bps597.08ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps597.05ok
Median of 3 sources$597.05

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BNB windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:40 → 12:45Nov 15597.18597.49UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.5%LOSS
12:35 → 12:40Nov 15597.84597.18DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.0%WIN
12:30 → 12:35Nov 15597.67597.84UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 15597.66597.67UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.5%LOSS
12:20 → 12:25Nov 15597.35597.66UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.5%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 15596.30597.35UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.8%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 15596.38596.30DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
12:05 → 12:10Nov 15595.23596.38UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.8%LOSS
12:00 → 12:05Nov 15595.47595.23DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.7%WIN
11:55 → 12:00Nov 15596.91595.47DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 15597.47596.91DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 15597.48597.47DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BNB · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BNB 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.4%210 mkts
  2. 2Whale Flow Agent51.0%210 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.5%210 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent46.7%210 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent49.0%210 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent49.5%210 mkts

About this market

BNB · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology