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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

07:20 → 07:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:20 → 07:25 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0720

Settled

Nov 15, 07:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,421.48
Index at 07:20:00

Final index

$64,403.10

Settlement price

$64,403.10
Index at 07:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,395.5864,438.7164,460.2707:2007:2107:2207:2307:25PTB 64,421.48

Settlement $64,403.10

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN63.5%High
UP 36.5%63.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.6%
101 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 07:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium52.5%101 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.5%
UP 43.5%56.5% DOWN
Medium48.5%101 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium47.5%101 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium49.5%101 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Low52.5%101 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.8%
UP 45.2%54.8% DOWN
Medium44.6%101 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low51.5%101 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low46.5%101 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low38.6%101 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:20:00 UTC

07:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,423.22ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,421.48ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,418.13ok
Median of 3 sources$64,421.48

Settlement · 07:25:00 UTC

07:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.6 bps64,407.20ok
  • Coinbase−0.2 bps64,402.02ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,403.10ok
Median of 3 sources$64,403.10

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1564,402.9564,421.48UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 1564,455.1064,402.95DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 1564,313.1964,455.10UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 1564,425.5964,313.19DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 1564,356.0464,425.59UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%LOSS
06:50 → 06:55Nov 1564,444.0664,356.04DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.5%WIN
06:45 → 06:50Nov 1564,480.2364,444.06DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN
06:40 → 06:45Nov 1564,385.2964,480.23UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
06:35 → 06:40Nov 1564,378.9864,385.29UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%LOSS
06:30 → 06:35Nov 1564,498.6264,378.98DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
06:25 → 06:30Nov 1564,430.9064,498.62UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%LOSS
06:20 → 06:25Nov 1564,477.7464,430.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.5%101 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent51.5%101 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent46.5%101 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent52.5%101 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent48.5%101 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent47.5%101 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology