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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

06:35 → 06:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:35 → 06:40 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0635

Settled

Nov 15, 06:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,378.98
Index at 06:35:00

Final index

$64,385.29

Settlement price

$64,385.29
Index at 06:40:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,300.9464,344.9964,433.0906:3506:3606:3706:3806:40PTB 64,378.98

Settlement $64,385.29

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.5%High
UP 35.5%64.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
45.3%
86 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 06:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium50.0%86 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium48.8%86 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Medium48.8%86 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.8%
UP 43.2%56.8% DOWN
Medium52.3%86 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP51.3%
UP 51.3%48.7% DOWN
Low55.8%86 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium43.0%86 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low50.0%86 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low51.2%86 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP51.0%
UP 51.0%49.0% DOWN
Low41.9%86 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:35:00 UTC

06:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.2 bps64,380.23ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,378.98ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,375.53ok
Median of 3 sources$64,378.98

Settlement · 06:40:00 UTC

06:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,385.29ok
  • Coinbase+0.3 bps64,387.51ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,381.93ok
Median of 3 sources$64,385.29

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
06:30 → 06:35Nov 1564,498.6264,378.98DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
06:25 → 06:30Nov 1564,430.9064,498.62UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%LOSS
06:20 → 06:25Nov 1564,477.7464,430.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
06:15 → 06:20Nov 1564,217.7064,477.74UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
06:10 → 06:15Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
06:05 → 06:10Nov 1564,258.83—VOID5 / 9 UPUP51.3%VOID
06:00 → 06:05Nov 1564,465.4964,258.83DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
05:55 → 06:00Nov 1564,611.0264,465.49DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 1564,748.5364,611.02DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 1564,798.5364,748.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1564,829.9164,798.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1564,802.0964,829.91UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.8%86 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.2%86 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.0%86 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent50.0%86 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent52.3%86 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent48.8%86 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology