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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

06:15 → 06:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled06:15 → 06:20 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0615

Settled

Nov 15, 06:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,217.70
Index at 06:15:00

Final index

$64,477.74

Settlement price

$64,477.74
Index at 06:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,325.3764,428.9764,532.5806:1506:1606:1706:1806:20PTB 64,217.70

Settlement $64,477.74

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.5%Low
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
42.5%
80 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 06:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium47.5%80 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Medium47.5%80 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP53.5%
UP 53.5%46.5% DOWN
Medium46.3%80 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Medium50.0%80 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low56.3%80 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN56.0%
UP 44.0%56.0% DOWN
Medium42.5%80 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low52.5%80 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low48.8%80 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low41.3%80 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:15:00 UTC

06:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.5 bps64,227.15ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.3 bps64,215.66ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,217.70ok
Median of 3 sources$64,217.70

Settlement · 06:20:00 UTC

06:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.0 bps64,477.67ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,477.74ok
  • Coinbase+0.4 bps64,480.00ok
Median of 3 sources$64,477.74

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
06:10 → 06:15Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
06:05 → 06:10Nov 1564,258.83—VOID5 / 9 UPUP51.3%VOID
06:00 → 06:05Nov 1564,465.4964,258.83DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
05:55 → 06:00Nov 1564,611.0264,465.49DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 1564,748.5364,611.02DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 1564,798.5364,748.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1564,829.9164,798.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1564,802.0964,829.91UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1564,834.2764,802.09DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1564,936.9264,834.27DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1564,967.5064,936.92DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1564,885.3464,967.50UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent52.5%80 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent56.3%80 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent48.8%80 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent47.5%80 mkts
  5. 5Momentum Agent47.5%80 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent46.3%80 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology