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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

05:40 → 05:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled05:40 → 05:45 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0540

Settled

Nov 15, 05:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,829.91
Index at 05:40:00

Final index

$64,798.53

Settlement price

$64,798.53
Index at 05:45:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,789.5364,860.5064,895.9905:4005:4105:4205:4305:45PTB 64,829.91

Settlement $64,798.53

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN52.9%Medium
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
46.4%
69 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 05:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 05:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.3%
UP 48.7%51.3% DOWN
Medium52.2%69 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.2%
UP 41.8%58.2% DOWN
Medium49.3%69 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN51.4%
UP 48.6%51.4% DOWN
Medium50.7%69 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium55.1%69 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP53.3%
UP 53.3%46.7% DOWN
Low56.5%69 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP52.8%
UP 52.8%47.2% DOWN
Medium44.9%69 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.3%69 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low50.7%69 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.5%
UP 52.5%47.5% DOWN
Low40.6%69 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 05:40:00 UTC

05:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,829.91ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.4 bps64,827.42ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps64,830.88ok
Median of 3 sources$64,829.91

Settlement · 05:45:00 UTC

05:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.4 bps64,801.09ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps64,793.39ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,798.53ok
Median of 3 sources$64,798.53

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1564,802.0964,829.91UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1564,834.2764,802.09DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1564,936.9264,834.27DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1564,967.5064,936.92DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1564,885.3464,967.50UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1564,773.5464,885.34UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1564,836.0464,773.54DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN
05:00 → 05:05Nov 1564,900.5364,836.04DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.6%WIN
04:55 → 05:00Nov 1565,054.9064,900.53DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%WIN
04:50 → 04:55Nov 1564,998.6565,054.90UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
04:45 → 04:50Nov 1564,798.5764,998.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%LOSS
04:40 → 04:45Nov 1564,764.8064,798.57UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent56.5%69 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.7%69 mkts
  3. 3Trend Agent52.2%69 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent49.3%69 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent55.1%69 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.7%69 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology