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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

04:50 → 04:55 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:50 → 04:55 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0450

Settled

Nov 15, 04:55:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,998.65
Index at 04:50:00

Final index

$65,054.90

Settlement price

$65,054.90
Index at 04:55:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,032.5365,075.7065,118.8704:5004:5104:5204:5304:55PTB 64,998.65

Settlement $65,054.90

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN61.1%High
UP 38.9%61.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.0%
51 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 04:50:04 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:50:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN51.8%
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Medium52.9%51 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN60.9%
UP 39.1%60.9% DOWN
Medium47.1%51 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.6%
UP 43.4%56.6% DOWN
Medium49.0%51 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Medium58.8%51 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Low51.0%51 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN52.8%
UP 47.2%52.8% DOWN
Medium47.1%51 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low51.0%51 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low49.0%51 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low43.1%51 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:50:00 UTC

04:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,998.65ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps65,000.08ok
  • Coinbase−1.4 bps64,989.80ok
Median of 3 sources$64,998.65

Settlement · 04:55:00 UTC

04:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.9 bps65,060.69ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.9 bps65,049.01ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,054.90ok
Median of 3 sources$65,054.90

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:45 → 04:50Nov 1564,798.5764,998.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%LOSS
04:40 → 04:45Nov 1564,764.8064,798.57UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.0%LOSS
04:35 → 04:40Nov 1564,977.7464,764.80DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
04:30 → 04:35Nov 1564,893.8464,977.74UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%LOSS
04:25 → 04:30Nov 1564,819.5764,893.84UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 1564,803.6964,819.57UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.0%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 1564,876.6764,803.69DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 1564,629.1464,876.67UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.2%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1564,706.6764,629.14DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1564,784.7164,706.67DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1564,715.6064,784.71UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1564,807.4264,715.60DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent51.0%51 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent51.0%51 mkts
  3. 3RSI Divergence Agent58.8%51 mkts
  4. 4OI/Funding Agent49.0%51 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent52.9%51 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent47.1%51 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology