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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

04:35 → 04:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:35 → 04:40 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0435

Settled

Nov 15, 04:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,977.74
Index at 04:35:00

Final index

$64,764.80

Settlement price

$64,764.80
Index at 04:40:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,729.9764,809.5664,889.1604:3504:3604:3704:3804:40PTB 64,977.74

Settlement $64,764.80

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN59.5%Medium
UP 40.5%59.5% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.9%
45 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 04:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium53.3%45 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN60.1%
UP 39.9%60.1% DOWN
Medium46.7%45 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium48.9%45 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.8%
UP 45.2%54.8% DOWN
Medium60.0%45 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.9%
UP 49.1%50.9% DOWN
Low53.3%45 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Medium46.7%45 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low48.9%45 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low48.9%45 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low44.4%45 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:35:00 UTC

04:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,979.82ok
  • Coinbase−1.0 bps64,971.54ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,977.74ok
Median of 3 sources$64,977.74

Settlement · 04:40:00 UTC

04:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,766.98ok
  • Coinbase−0.2 bps64,763.46ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,764.80ok
Median of 3 sources$64,764.80

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:30 → 04:35Nov 1564,893.8464,977.74UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%LOSS
04:25 → 04:30Nov 1564,819.5764,893.84UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 1564,803.6964,819.57UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.0%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 1564,876.6764,803.69DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 1564,629.1464,876.67UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.2%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1564,706.6764,629.14DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1564,784.7164,706.67DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1564,715.6064,784.71UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1564,807.4264,715.60DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.0%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1565,122.6764,807.42DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1564,960.3565,122.67UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1564,775.2664,960.35UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.3%45 mkts
  2. 2RSI Divergence Agent60.0%45 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent48.9%45 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent48.9%45 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent53.3%45 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent46.7%45 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology