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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

04:30 → 04:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled04:30 → 04:35 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0430

Settled

Nov 15, 04:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,893.84
Index at 04:30:00

Final index

$64,977.74

Settlement price

$64,977.74
Index at 04:35:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,836.8964,943.2864,996.4804:3004:3104:3204:3304:35PTB 64,893.84

Settlement $64,977.74

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN55.8%Low
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.0%
44 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 04:30:07 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 04:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Medium54.5%44 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN59.0%
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Medium47.7%44 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.4%
UP 41.6%58.4% DOWN
Medium47.7%44 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium59.1%44 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.5%
UP 46.5%53.5% DOWN
Low54.5%44 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP52.7%
UP 52.7%47.3% DOWN
Medium47.7%44 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.0%44 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low50.0%44 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low45.5%44 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 04:30:00 UTC

04:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps64,896.84ok
  • Coinbase−1.1 bps64,886.87ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,893.84ok
Median of 3 sources$64,893.84

Settlement · 04:35:00 UTC

04:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,979.82ok
  • Coinbase−1.0 bps64,971.54ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,977.74ok
Median of 3 sources$64,977.74

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
04:25 → 04:30Nov 1564,819.5764,893.84UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%LOSS
04:20 → 04:25Nov 1564,803.6964,819.57UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.0%LOSS
04:15 → 04:20Nov 1564,876.6764,803.69DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%WIN
04:10 → 04:15Nov 1564,629.1464,876.67UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.2%LOSS
04:05 → 04:10Nov 1564,706.6764,629.14DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
04:00 → 04:05Nov 1564,784.7164,706.67DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
03:55 → 04:00Nov 1564,715.6064,784.71UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.0%LOSS
03:50 → 03:55Nov 1564,807.4264,715.60DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.0%WIN
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1565,122.6764,807.42DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1564,960.3565,122.67UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1564,775.2664,960.35UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.8%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1564,963.9064,775.26DOWN6 / 9 UPDOWN50.6%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.5%44 mkts
  2. 2RSI Divergence Agent59.1%44 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent50.0%44 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent50.0%44 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent54.5%44 mkts
  6. 6Volatility Agent47.7%44 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology