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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

03:50 → 03:55 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:50 → 03:55 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0350

Settled

Nov 15, 03:55:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,807.42
Index at 03:50:00

Final index

$64,715.60

Settlement price

$64,715.60
Index at 03:55:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,719.2664,780.8864,842.5164,904.1303:5003:5103:5203:5303:55PTB 64,807.42

Settlement $64,715.60

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN65.0%High
UP 35.0%65.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
36.7%
30 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 03:50:03 UTC

Base consensus

9 / 9 DOWN

100.0% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:50:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN59.3%
UP 40.7%59.3% DOWN
Medium40.0%30 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium36.7%30 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Medium36.7%30 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN56.7%
UP 43.3%56.7% DOWN
Medium43.3%30 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low53.3%30 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.1%
UP 45.9%54.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%30 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low53.3%30 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low36.7%30 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.6%
UP 47.4%52.6% DOWN
Low43.3%30 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:50:00 UTC

03:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.8 bps64,812.51ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,807.42ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,804.39ok
Median of 3 sources$64,807.42

Settlement · 03:55:00 UTC

03:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.0 bps64,721.80ok
  • Coinbase−0.7 bps64,710.80ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,715.60ok
Median of 3 sources$64,715.60

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:45 → 03:50Nov 1565,122.6764,807.42DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.4%WIN
03:40 → 03:45Nov 1564,960.3565,122.67UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.3%LOSS
03:35 → 03:40Nov 1564,775.2664,960.35UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.8%LOSS
03:30 → 03:35Nov 1564,963.9064,775.26DOWN6 / 9 UPDOWN50.6%WIN
03:25 → 03:30Nov 1565,029.7664,963.90DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%WIN
03:20 → 03:25Nov 1565,245.4865,029.76DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%WIN
03:15 → 03:20Nov 1565,162.0665,245.48UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.4%LOSS
03:10 → 03:15Nov 1565,273.4765,162.06DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%WIN
03:05 → 03:10Nov 1565,196.3665,273.47UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 1564,873.6665,196.36UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1564,781.2264,873.66UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1564,717.5564,781.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent53.3%30 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent53.3%30 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent50.0%30 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent43.3%30 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent43.3%30 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent40.0%30 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology