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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

03:10 → 03:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:10 → 03:15 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0310

Settled

Nov 15, 03:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,273.47
Index at 03:10:00

Final index

$65,162.06

Settlement price

$65,162.06
Index at 03:15:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,172.6465,360.1365,453.8703:1003:1103:1203:1303:15PTB 65,273.47

Settlement $65,162.06

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN67.1%High
UP 32.9%67.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
35.3%
17 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 03:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.8%
UP 43.2%56.8% DOWN
Medium35.3%17 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN57.6%
UP 42.4%57.6% DOWN
Medium35.3%17 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN61.2%
UP 38.8%61.2% DOWN
Medium29.4%17 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.9%
UP 42.1%57.9% DOWN
Medium47.1%17 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP51.2%
UP 51.2%48.8% DOWN
Low52.9%17 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium58.8%17 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low58.8%17 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low35.3%17 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low35.3%17 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:10:00 UTC

03:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,273.47ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.1 bps65,272.97ok
  • Coinbase+0.3 bps65,275.43ok
Median of 3 sources$65,273.47

Settlement · 03:15:00 UTC

03:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,164.07ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps65,160.58ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,162.06ok
Median of 3 sources$65,162.06

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:05 → 03:10Nov 1565,196.3665,273.47UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 1564,873.6665,196.36UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1564,781.2264,873.66UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1564,717.5564,781.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 1564,791.9064,717.55DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 1564,670.7064,791.90UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 1564,666.8164,670.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 1564,452.1764,666.81UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:25 → 02:30Nov 1564,203.1864,452.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent58.8%17 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent52.9%17 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent58.8%17 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent47.1%17 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent35.3%17 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent35.3%17 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology