Skip to content
PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

03:00 → 03:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:00 → 03:05 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0300

Settled

Nov 15, 03:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,873.66
Index at 03:00:00

Final index

$65,196.36

Settlement price

$65,196.36
Index at 03:05:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,072.3865,290.6765,508.9703:0003:0103:0203:0303:05PTB 64,873.66

Settlement $65,196.36

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN60.1%Medium
UP 39.9%60.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
18.2%
11 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 03:00:08 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous windowNext window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium18.2%11 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN60.7%
UP 39.3%60.7% DOWN
Medium18.2%11 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.6%
UP 41.4%58.6% DOWN
Medium18.2%11 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium27.3%11 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Low63.6%11 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Medium72.7%11 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low81.8%11 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low18.2%11 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Low45.5%11 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:00:00 UTC

03:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps64,877.16ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,873.66ok
  • Coinbase−1.7 bps64,862.78ok
Median of 3 sources$64,873.66

Settlement · 03:05:00 UTC

03:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.5 bps65,192.97ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+2.6 bps65,213.15ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,196.36ok
Median of 3 sources$65,196.36

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1564,781.2264,873.66UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1564,717.5564,781.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 1564,791.9064,717.55DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 1564,670.7064,791.90UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 1564,666.8164,670.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 1564,452.1764,666.81UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:25 → 02:30Nov 1564,203.1864,452.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent81.8%11 mkts
  2. 2Volatility Agent72.7%11 mkts
  3. 3Order Flow Agent63.6%11 mkts
  4. 4Whale Flow Agent45.5%11 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent27.3%11 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent18.2%11 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology