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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

03:15 → 03:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled03:15 → 03:20 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0315

Settled

Nov 15, 03:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,162.06
Index at 03:15:00

Final index

$65,245.48

Settlement price

$65,245.48
Index at 03:20:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,200.7065,241.9665,283.2103:1503:1603:1703:1803:20PTB 65,162.06

Settlement $65,245.48

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN60.4%Medium
UP 39.6%60.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
38.9%
18 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 03:15:05 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 03:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN62.8%
UP 37.2%62.8% DOWN
Medium38.9%18 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.8%
UP 46.2%53.8% DOWN
Medium38.9%18 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.6%
UP 45.4%54.6% DOWN
Medium33.3%18 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN57.8%
UP 42.2%57.8% DOWN
Medium50.0%18 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.4%
UP 50.4%49.6% DOWN
Low55.6%18 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP52.4%
UP 52.4%47.6% DOWN
Medium61.1%18 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low61.1%18 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low38.9%18 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low38.9%18 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 03:15:00 UTC

03:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,164.07ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps65,160.58ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,162.06ok
Median of 3 sources$65,162.06

Settlement · 03:20:00 UTC

03:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.3 bps65,247.31ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,245.48ok
  • Coinbase−0.9 bps65,239.88ok
Median of 3 sources$65,245.48

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
03:10 → 03:15Nov 1565,273.4765,162.06DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.1%WIN
03:05 → 03:10Nov 1565,196.3665,273.47UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%LOSS
03:00 → 03:05Nov 1564,873.6665,196.36UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.1%LOSS
02:55 → 03:00Nov 1564,781.2264,873.66UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.2%LOSS
02:50 → 02:55Nov 1564,717.5564,781.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.2%LOSS
02:45 → 02:50Nov 1564,791.9064,717.55DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.5%WIN
02:40 → 02:45Nov 1564,670.7064,791.90UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
02:35 → 02:40Nov 1564,666.8164,670.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.8%LOSS
02:30 → 02:35Nov 1564,452.1764,666.81UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.9%LOSS
02:25 → 02:30Nov 1564,203.1864,452.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN70.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Liquidation Agent61.1%18 mkts
  2. 2Order Flow Agent55.6%18 mkts
  3. 3Volatility Agent61.1%18 mkts
  4. 4RSI Divergence Agent50.0%18 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent38.9%18 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent38.9%18 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology