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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

05:45 → 05:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled05:45 → 05:50 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0545

Settled

Nov 15, 05:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,798.53
Index at 05:45:00

Final index

$64,748.53

Settlement price

$64,748.53
Index at 05:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,708.7864,739.3664,769.9505:4505:4605:4705:4805:50PTB 64,798.53

Settlement $64,748.53

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN55.6%Medium
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Historical accuracy
45.7%
70 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 05:45:07 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 05:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.1%
UP 44.9%55.1% DOWN
Medium51.4%70 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN59.7%
UP 40.3%59.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%70 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%70 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN53.3%
UP 46.7%53.3% DOWN
Medium54.3%70 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP52.4%
UP 52.4%47.6% DOWN
Low55.7%70 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP54.0%
UP 54.0%46.0% DOWN
Medium44.3%70 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.6%70 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low50.0%70 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.8%
UP 51.8%48.2% DOWN
Low40.0%70 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 05:45:00 UTC

05:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.4 bps64,801.09ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps64,793.39ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,798.53ok
Median of 3 sources$64,798.53

Settlement · 05:50:00 UTC

05:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.2 bps64,749.77ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps64,747.26ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,748.53ok
Median of 3 sources$64,748.53

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1564,829.9164,798.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1564,802.0964,829.91UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1564,834.2764,802.09DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1564,936.9264,834.27DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1564,967.5064,936.92DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1564,885.3464,967.50UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1564,773.5464,885.34UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1564,836.0464,773.54DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN
05:00 → 05:05Nov 1564,900.5364,836.04DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.6%WIN
04:55 → 05:00Nov 1565,054.9064,900.53DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%WIN
04:50 → 04:55Nov 1564,998.6565,054.90UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.1%LOSS
04:45 → 04:50Nov 1564,798.5764,998.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.8%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.7%70 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.0%70 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent48.6%70 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent51.4%70 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent54.3%70 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.0%70 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology