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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

06:05 → 06:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.

This window was cancelled (VOID)Offline at settlement

The network was not ingesting prices at the settlement instant. Markets are never settled late from historical data. The predictions below stay on the record as VOID: they are excluded from accuracy, calibration and learning.

Void06:05 → 06:10 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0605

Settled

Nov 15, 06:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,258.83
Index at 06:05:00

Final index

—

Settlement price

—
Index at 06:10:00

Outcome

VOID
Immutable record
64,189.4664,227.9064,304.7806:0506:0606:0706:0806:10PTB 64,258.83
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsVOID
UP51.3%Low
UP 51.3%48.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.2%
77 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 06:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 UP

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 06:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP55.4%
UP 55.4%44.6% DOWN
Medium49.4%77 marketsVOID
Momentum AgentDOWN50.6%
UP 49.4%50.6% DOWN
Medium49.4%77 marketsVOID
Mean Reversion AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Medium48.1%77 marketsVOID
RSI Divergence AgentUP51.9%
UP 51.9%48.1% DOWN
Medium51.9%77 marketsVOID
Order Flow AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Low54.5%77 marketsVOID
Volatility AgentDOWN54.7%
UP 45.3%54.7% DOWN
Medium44.2%77 marketsVOID
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.6%77 marketsVOID
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low49.4%77 marketsVOID
Whale Flow AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Low41.6%77 marketsVOID

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 06:05:00 UTC

06:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.5 bps64,261.85ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.6 bps64,248.65ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,258.83ok
Median of 3 sources$64,258.83

Settlement · 06:10:00 UTC

Available at settlement.

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
06:00 → 06:05Nov 1564,465.4964,258.83DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.3%WIN
05:55 → 06:00Nov 1564,611.0264,465.49DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
05:50 → 05:55Nov 1564,748.5364,611.02DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 1564,798.5364,748.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1564,829.9164,798.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1564,802.0964,829.91UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1564,834.2764,802.09DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1564,936.9264,834.27DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1564,967.5064,936.92DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1564,885.3464,967.50UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1564,773.5464,885.34UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1564,836.0464,773.54DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.5%77 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent50.6%77 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent49.4%77 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent49.4%77 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent48.1%77 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent51.9%77 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology