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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

05:55 → 06:00 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled05:55 → 06:00 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0555

Settled

Nov 15, 06:00:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,611.02
Index at 05:55:00

Final index

$64,465.49

Settlement price

$64,465.49
Index at 06:00:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,437.4264,497.8664,558.2905:5505:5605:5705:5806:00PTB 64,611.02

Settlement $64,465.49

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN51.8%Low
UP 48.2%51.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.6%
74 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 05:55:08 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 05:55:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium50.0%74 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium50.0%74 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP53.8%
UP 53.8%46.2% DOWN
Medium48.6%74 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Medium52.7%74 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium55.4%74 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Medium43.2%74 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.0%74 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low50.0%74 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low41.9%74 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 05:55:00 UTC

05:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.2 bps64,612.63ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps64,607.87ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,611.02ok
Median of 3 sources$64,611.02

Settlement · 06:00:00 UTC

06:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.4 bps64,474.50ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,465.49ok
  • Coinbase−0.8 bps64,460.03ok
Median of 3 sources$64,465.49

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
05:50 → 05:55Nov 1564,748.5364,611.02DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%WIN
05:45 → 05:50Nov 1564,798.5364,748.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.6%WIN
05:40 → 05:45Nov 1564,829.9164,798.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
05:35 → 05:40Nov 1564,802.0964,829.91UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
05:30 → 05:35Nov 1564,834.2764,802.09DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN
05:25 → 05:30Nov 1564,936.9264,834.27DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.6%WIN
05:20 → 05:25Nov 1564,967.5064,936.92DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.9%WIN
05:15 → 05:20Nov 1564,885.3464,967.50UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%LOSS
05:10 → 05:15Nov 1564,773.5464,885.34UP5 / 9 UPDOWN52.1%LOSS
05:05 → 05:10Nov 1564,836.0464,773.54DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN
05:00 → 05:05Nov 1564,900.5364,836.04DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.6%WIN
04:55 → 05:00Nov 1565,054.9064,900.53DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.2%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent55.4%74 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.0%74 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.0%74 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent50.0%74 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent48.6%74 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent52.7%74 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology