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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

12:40 → 12:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:40 → 12:45 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1240

Settled

Nov 15, 12:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,409.61
Index at 12:40:00

Final index

$65,456.04

Settlement price

$65,456.04
Index at 12:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,359.7065,391.9365,424.1765,456.4012:4012:4112:4212:4312:45PTB 65,409.61

Settlement $65,456.04

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN60.8%High
UP 39.2%60.8% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.8%
211 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 12:40:05 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN57.2%
UP 42.8%57.2% DOWN
Medium50.7%211 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium55.0%211 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.3%
UP 42.7%57.3% DOWN
Medium48.8%211 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.3%
UP 41.7%58.3% DOWN
Medium50.2%211 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.7%
UP 49.3%50.7% DOWN
Low53.1%211 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN60.9%
UP 39.1%60.9% DOWN
Medium47.9%211 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.8%211 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low51.7%211 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low44.5%211 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:40:00 UTC

12:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,409.61ok
  • Coinbase−0.1 bps65,408.65ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.5 bps65,412.83ok
Median of 3 sources$65,409.61

Settlement · 12:45:00 UTC

12:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,456.04ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps65,457.39ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.4 bps65,453.75ok
Median of 3 sources$65,456.04

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
12:35 → 12:40Nov 1565,516.7265,409.61DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%WIN
12:30 → 12:35Nov 1565,437.2365,516.72UP9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.9%LOSS
12:25 → 12:30Nov 1565,465.6565,437.23DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.8%WIN
12:20 → 12:25Nov 1565,397.5765,465.65UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.2%LOSS
12:15 → 12:20Nov 1565,317.4465,397.57UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%LOSS
12:10 → 12:15Nov 1565,355.3665,317.44DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.1%WIN
12:05 → 12:10Nov 1565,257.7965,355.36UP5 / 9 UPUP51.3%WIN
12:00 → 12:05Nov 1565,314.6665,257.79DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.2%WIN
11:55 → 12:00Nov 1565,432.7965,314.66DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 1565,455.5565,432.79DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 1565,471.1365,455.55DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
11:40 → 11:45Nov 1565,474.5065,471.13DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.1%211 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.7%211 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent55.0%211 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent49.8%211 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent48.8%211 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.2%211 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology