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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

12:00 → 12:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled12:00 → 12:05 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1200

Settled

Nov 15, 12:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,314.66
Index at 12:00:00

Final index

$65,257.79

Settlement price

$65,257.79
Index at 12:05:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,179.2765,228.1565,277.0412:0012:0112:0212:0312:05PTB 65,314.66

Settlement $65,257.79

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN53.2%Medium
UP 46.8%53.2% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.7%
197 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 12:00:12 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 12:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium51.3%197 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN51.0%
UP 49.0%51.0% DOWN
Medium54.8%197 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.5%
UP 50.5%49.5% DOWN
Medium49.2%197 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN51.7%
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Medium50.3%197 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium52.8%197 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP52.6%
UP 52.6%47.4% DOWN
Medium47.7%197 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.7%197 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low51.3%197 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.4%
UP 49.6%50.4% DOWN
Low42.1%197 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 12:00:00 UTC

12:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.2 bps65,306.56ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps65,315.58ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,314.66ok
Median of 3 sources$65,314.66

Settlement · 12:05:00 UTC

12:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.9 bps65,251.60ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps65,263.26ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,257.79ok
Median of 3 sources$65,257.79

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:55 → 12:00Nov 1565,432.7965,314.66DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.2%WIN
11:50 → 11:55Nov 1565,455.5565,432.79DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
11:45 → 11:50Nov 1565,471.1365,455.55DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
11:40 → 11:45Nov 1565,474.5065,471.13DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.0%WIN
11:35 → 11:40Nov 1565,362.8465,474.50UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.3%LOSS
11:30 → 11:35Nov 1565,404.6565,362.84DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
11:25 → 11:30Nov 1565,388.6265,404.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 1565,409.7065,388.62DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
11:15 → 11:20Nov 1565,274.5965,409.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 1565,238.2765,274.59UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%LOSS
11:05 → 11:10Nov 1565,478.1165,238.27DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.8%197 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.3%197 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent54.8%197 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent49.7%197 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent49.2%197 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent51.3%197 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology