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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

11:35 → 11:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled11:35 → 11:40 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1135

Settled

Nov 15, 11:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,362.84
Index at 11:35:00

Final index

$65,474.50

Settlement price

$65,474.50
Index at 11:40:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,420.7165,472.7065,524.7011:3511:3611:3711:3811:40PTB 65,362.84

Settlement $65,474.50

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN59.3%High
UP 40.7%59.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.5%
188 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 11:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

8 / 9 DOWN

88.9% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 11:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN57.1%
UP 42.9%57.1% DOWN
Medium52.7%188 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium54.3%188 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Medium49.5%188 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium50.0%188 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.0%
UP 47.0%53.0% DOWN
Low52.7%188 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium47.9%188 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low49.5%188 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low51.1%188 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.5%
UP 48.5%51.5% DOWN
Low42.6%188 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 11:35:00 UTC

11:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,362.84ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps65,363.36ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.1 bps65,362.23ok
Median of 3 sources$65,362.84

Settlement · 11:40:00 UTC

11:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps65,470.78ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,474.50ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.2 bps65,475.96ok
Median of 3 sources$65,474.50

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
11:30 → 11:35Nov 1565,404.6565,362.84DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.8%WIN
11:25 → 11:30Nov 1565,388.6265,404.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.7%LOSS
11:20 → 11:25Nov 1565,409.7065,388.62DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.8%WIN
11:15 → 11:20Nov 1565,274.5965,409.70UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%LOSS
11:10 → 11:15Nov 1565,238.2765,274.59UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.1%LOSS
11:05 → 11:10Nov 1565,478.1165,238.27DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
11:00 → 11:05Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
10:55 → 11:00Nov 1565,514.0865,553.55UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.0%LOSS
10:50 → 10:55Nov 1565,500.6365,514.08UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.5%LOSS
10:45 → 10:50Nov 1565,525.7765,500.63DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
10:40 → 10:45Nov 1565,519.7665,525.77UP5 / 9 UPDOWN53.1%LOSS
10:35 → 10:40Nov 1565,473.2265,519.76UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.4%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.7%188 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent51.1%188 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent49.5%188 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent54.3%188 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent52.7%188 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent49.5%188 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology