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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

10:35 → 10:40 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:35 → 10:40 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1035

Settled

Nov 15, 10:40:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,473.22
Index at 10:35:00

Final index

$65,519.76

Settlement price

$65,519.76
Index at 10:40:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,399.8165,438.3465,515.4110:3510:3610:3710:3810:40PTB 65,473.22

Settlement $65,519.76

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN54.4%Medium
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
50.0%
166 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 10:35:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:35:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Medium54.2%166 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN53.6%
UP 46.4%53.6% DOWN
Medium54.8%166 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN58.4%
UP 41.6%58.4% DOWN
Medium51.2%166 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN52.3%
UP 47.7%52.3% DOWN
Medium51.8%166 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.7%
UP 47.3%52.7% DOWN
Low54.2%166 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP53.6%
UP 53.6%46.4% DOWN
Medium48.2%166 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.4%166 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.4%166 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low42.2%166 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:35:00 UTC

10:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.9 bps65,467.42ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,473.22ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.5 bps65,476.21ok
Median of 3 sources$65,473.22

Settlement · 10:40:00 UTC

10:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,519.76ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps65,524.73ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.5 bps65,516.27ok
Median of 3 sources$65,519.76

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:30 → 10:35Nov 1565,456.5365,473.22UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
10:25 → 10:30Nov 1565,477.5165,456.53DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.4%WIN
10:20 → 10:25Nov 1565,477.6465,477.51DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN65.9%WIN
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1565,587.4365,477.64DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1565,536.5365,587.43UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.7%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1565,434.0665,536.53UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1565,309.6465,434.06UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1565,362.1565,309.64DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.3%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1565,294.8365,362.15UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.6%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1565,425.6565,294.83DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1565,411.5365,425.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1565,480.7265,411.53DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.2%166 mkts
  2. 2Momentum Agent54.8%166 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent49.4%166 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent49.4%166 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent51.2%166 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent54.2%166 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology