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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

10:15 → 10:20 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:15 → 10:20 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1015

Settled

Nov 15, 10:20:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,587.43
Index at 10:15:00

Final index

$65,477.64

Settlement price

$65,477.64
Index at 10:20:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,376.1565,458.2765,540.3965,622.5110:1510:1610:1710:1810:20PTB 65,587.43

Settlement $65,477.64

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN54.3%Low
UP 45.7%54.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
48.7%
158 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 10:15:06 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:15:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium53.8%158 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN58.1%
UP 41.9%58.1% DOWN
Medium53.2%158 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN57.7%
UP 42.3%57.7% DOWN
Medium50.0%158 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentUP50.6%
UP 50.6%49.4% DOWN
Medium50.6%158 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Low53.2%158 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP53.4%
UP 53.4%46.6% DOWN
Medium47.5%158 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.6%158 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low50.0%158 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.7%
UP 50.7%49.3% DOWN
Low41.8%158 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:15:00 UTC

10:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,587.43ok
  • Coinbase+1.1 bps65,594.81ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−1.1 bps65,580.44ok
Median of 3 sources$65,587.43

Settlement · 10:20:00 UTC

10:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,477.64ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps65,483.05ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps65,472.42ok
Median of 3 sources$65,477.64

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1565,536.5365,587.43UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.7%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1565,434.0665,536.53UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1565,309.6465,434.06UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1565,362.1565,309.64DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.3%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1565,294.8365,362.15UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.6%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1565,425.6565,294.83DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1565,411.5365,425.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1565,480.7265,411.53DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1565,611.6365,480.72DOWN6 / 9 UPDOWN52.5%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1565,697.8065,561.73DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1565,885.1765,697.80DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.0%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.2%158 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent50.0%158 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.6%158 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent53.2%158 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent53.8%158 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.6%158 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology