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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

10:20 → 10:25 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled10:20 → 10:25 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-1020

Settled

Nov 15, 10:25:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,477.64
Index at 10:20:00

Final index

$65,477.51

Settlement price

$65,477.51
Index at 10:25:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
65,395.1065,438.8865,526.4410:2010:2110:2210:2310:25PTB 65,477.64

Settlement $65,477.51

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN65.9%High
UP 34.1%65.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.1%
161 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 10:20:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 10:20:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.6%
UP 41.4%58.6% DOWN
Medium53.4%161 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN56.2%
UP 43.8%56.2% DOWN
Medium54.0%161 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN54.5%
UP 45.5%54.5% DOWN
Medium50.3%161 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN59.2%
UP 40.8%59.2% DOWN
Medium50.9%161 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentUP54.1%
UP 54.1%45.9% DOWN
Medium54.0%161 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium47.8%161 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.3%161 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.7%161 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentUP52.3%
UP 52.3%47.7% DOWN
Low42.2%161 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 10:20:00 UTC

10:20:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,477.64ok
  • Coinbase+0.8 bps65,483.05ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.8 bps65,472.42ok
Median of 3 sources$65,477.64

Settlement · 10:25:00 UTC

10:25:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.7 bps65,472.77ok
  • Coinbase+0.3 bps65,479.78ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,477.51ok
Median of 3 sources$65,477.51

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
10:15 → 10:20Nov 1565,587.4365,477.64DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
10:10 → 10:15Nov 1565,536.5365,587.43UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.7%LOSS
10:05 → 10:10Nov 1565,434.0665,536.53UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%LOSS
10:00 → 10:05Nov 1565,309.6465,434.06UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.1%LOSS
09:55 → 10:00Nov 1565,362.1565,309.64DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN53.3%WIN
09:50 → 09:55Nov 1565,294.8365,362.15UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.6%LOSS
09:45 → 09:50Nov 1565,425.6565,294.83DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.5%WIN
09:40 → 09:45Nov 1565,411.5365,425.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.4%LOSS
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1565,480.7265,411.53DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1565,611.6365,480.72DOWN6 / 9 UPDOWN52.5%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1565,697.8065,561.73DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.0%161 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent49.7%161 mkts
  3. 3Momentum Agent54.0%161 mkts
  4. 4Liquidation Agent50.3%161 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent50.3%161 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent53.4%161 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology