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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

09:25 → 09:30 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.

This window was cancelled (VOID)Not opened

The network could not open this window on time (it was offline, or its opening ran late), so it was skipped: no Price To Beat and no predictions. It produces no accuracy, calibration or learning data.

Void09:25 → 09:30 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0925

Settled

Nov 15, 09:30:00 UTC

Price to beat

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Index at 09:25:00

Final index

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Settlement price

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Index at 09:30:00

Outcome

VOID
Immutable record
09:2509:2609:2709:2809:30No index data was recorded for this window.
Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialists

No prediction: this window was not opened.

Base consensus

No prediction: this window was not opened.

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

Previous windowNext window

Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:25:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
Momentum AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
Mean Reversion AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
RSI Divergence AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
Order Flow AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
Volatility AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
Liquidation AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
OI/Funding AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.
Whale Flow AgentNo prediction: this window was not opened.

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:25:00 UTC

Fixed when the window opens.

Settlement · 09:30:00 UTC

Available at settlement.

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1565,697.8065,561.73DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1565,885.1765,697.80DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.0%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 1565,821.8165,885.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.8%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 1565,780.0965,821.81UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 1565,205.7365,780.09UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 1564,725.4765,205.73UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 1564,672.0964,725.47UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.5%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 1564,700.3264,672.09DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1564,597.2364,700.32UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1564,667.6564,597.23DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1564,463.6364,667.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1564,274.9264,463.63UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent54.2%142 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent49.3%142 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent50.0%142 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent52.8%142 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent54.2%142 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.0%142 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology