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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

08:40 → 08:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:40 → 08:45 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0840

Settled

Nov 15, 08:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,597.23
Index at 08:40:00

Final index

$64,700.32

Settlement price

$64,700.32
Index at 08:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
64,644.2164,696.1164,748.0108:4008:4108:4208:4308:45PTB 64,597.23

Settlement $64,700.32

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN68.3%High
UP 31.7%68.3% DOWN
Historical accuracy
45.3%
128 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 08:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN58.0%
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%128 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN55.6%
UP 44.4%55.6% DOWN
Medium50.8%128 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN60.1%
UP 39.9%60.1% DOWN
Medium48.4%128 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.8%
UP 41.2%58.8% DOWN
Medium47.7%128 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP52.1%
UP 52.1%47.9% DOWN
Low53.9%128 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium46.1%128 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low50.0%128 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.2%
UP 50.2%49.8% DOWN
Low46.9%128 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP51.5%
UP 51.5%48.5% DOWN
Low41.4%128 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:40:00 UTC

08:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,597.23ok
  • Coinbase+0.2 bps64,598.67ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.0 bps64,597.14ok
Median of 3 sources$64,597.23

Settlement · 08:45:00 UTC

08:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.4 bps64,697.73ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,700.32ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,702.07ok
Median of 3 sources$64,700.32

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1564,667.6564,597.23DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1564,463.6364,667.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1564,274.9264,463.63UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1563,873.9964,274.92UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1563,855.7163,873.99UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%LOSS
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564,048.8763,855.71DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564,036.9064,048.87UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1563,972.4864,036.90UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1563,888.8163,972.48UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.0%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1563,802.9663,888.81UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1563,859.7363,802.96DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP55.9%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1564,022.7463,859.73DOWN5 / 9 UPUP53.7%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.9%128 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent50.0%128 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent46.9%128 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent50.8%128 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent48.4%128 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent50.0%128 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology