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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

08:10 → 08:15 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled08:10 → 08:15 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0810

Settled

Nov 15, 08:15:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,048.87
Index at 08:10:00

Final index

$63,855.71

Settlement price

$63,855.71
Index at 08:15:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
63,863.5863,933.2864,002.9764,072.6708:1008:1108:1208:1308:15PTB 64,048.87

Settlement $63,855.71

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN67.9%High
UP 32.1%67.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
46.6%
118 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 08:10:04 UTC

Base consensus

9 / 9 DOWN

100.0% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 08:10:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.9%
UP 43.1%56.9% DOWN
Medium52.5%118 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN53.1%
UP 46.9%53.1% DOWN
Medium50.8%118 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.2%
UP 40.8%59.2% DOWN
Medium50.0%118 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.0%
UP 42.0%58.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%118 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low53.4%118 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN60.9%
UP 39.1%60.9% DOWN
Medium47.5%118 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Low48.3%118 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low48.3%118 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Low39.8%118 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 08:10:00 UTC

08:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,048.87ok
  • Coinbase−2.6 bps64,032.21ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.3 bps64,050.56ok
Median of 3 sources$64,048.87

Settlement · 08:15:00 UTC

08:15:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−1.8 bps63,844.31ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps63,855.71ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.4 bps63,864.94ok
Median of 3 sources$63,855.71

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564,036.9064,048.87UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1563,972.4864,036.90UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%LOSS
07:55 → 08:00Nov 1563,888.8163,972.48UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN50.0%LOSS
07:50 → 07:55Nov 1563,802.9663,888.81UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN51.7%LOSS
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1563,859.7363,802.96DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP55.9%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1564,022.7463,859.73DOWN5 / 9 UPUP53.7%LOSS
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1564,214.1264,022.74DOWN7 / 9 UPUP51.4%LOSS
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1564,314.9164,214.12DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1564,403.1064,314.91DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1564,421.4864,403.10DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1564,402.9564,421.48UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 1564,455.1064,402.95DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.4%118 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent48.3%118 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent48.3%118 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent50.8%118 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent52.5%118 mkts
  6. 6Mean Reversion Agent50.0%118 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology