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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

07:50 → 07:55 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:50 → 07:55 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0750

Settled

Nov 15, 07:55:00 UTC

Price to beat

$63,802.96
Index at 07:50:00

Final index

$63,888.81

Settlement price

$63,888.81
Index at 07:55:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
63,741.0263,788.5063,835.9763,883.4507:5007:5107:5207:5307:55PTB 63,802.96

Settlement $63,888.81

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN51.7%Low
UP 48.3%51.7% DOWN
Historical accuracy
46.4%
112 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 07:50:04 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:50:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Medium53.6%112 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentUP54.0%
UP 54.0%46.0% DOWN
Medium50.0%112 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP53.1%
UP 53.1%46.9% DOWN
Medium50.9%112 marketsWIN
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.8%
UP 44.2%55.8% DOWN
Medium50.9%112 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.5%
UP 47.5%52.5% DOWN
Low52.7%112 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentDOWN55.0%
UP 45.0%55.0% DOWN
Medium46.4%112 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low49.1%112 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low48.2%112 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.8%
UP 49.2%50.8% DOWN
Low39.3%112 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:50:00 UTC

07:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.9 bps63,797.27ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps63,802.96ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps63,808.06ok
Median of 3 sources$63,802.96

Settlement · 07:55:00 UTC

07:55:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps63,888.81ok
  • Coinbase−0.0 bps63,888.64ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.4 bps63,891.64ok
Median of 3 sources$63,888.81

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:45 → 07:50Nov 1563,859.7363,802.96DOWN5 / 9 DOWNUP55.9%LOSS
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1564,022.7463,859.73DOWN5 / 9 UPUP53.7%LOSS
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1564,214.1264,022.74DOWN7 / 9 UPUP51.4%LOSS
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1564,314.9164,214.12DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1564,403.1064,314.91DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1564,421.4864,403.10DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1564,402.9564,421.48UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 1564,455.1064,402.95DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 1564,313.1964,455.10UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 1564,425.5964,313.19DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 1564,356.0464,425.59UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%LOSS
06:50 → 06:55Nov 1564,444.0664,356.04DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.5%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.7%112 mkts
  2. 2OI/Funding Agent48.2%112 mkts
  3. 3Liquidation Agent49.1%112 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent50.0%112 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent53.6%112 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent50.9%112 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology