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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

07:45 → 07:50 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:45 → 07:50 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0745

Settled

Nov 15, 07:50:00 UTC

Price to beat

$63,859.73
Index at 07:45:00

Final index

$63,802.96

Settlement price

$63,802.96
Index at 07:50:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
63,772.8563,826.4863,880.1263,933.7507:4507:4607:4707:4807:50PTB 63,859.73

Settlement $63,802.96

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
UP55.9%Medium
UP 55.9%44.1% DOWN
Historical accuracy
45.5%
110 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 07:45:06 UTC

Base consensus

5 / 9 DOWN

55.6% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:45:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentUP54.2%
UP 54.2%45.8% DOWN
Medium52.7%110 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentUP59.9%
UP 59.9%40.1% DOWN
Medium49.1%110 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentUP55.8%
UP 55.8%44.2% DOWN
Medium50.9%110 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP53.1%
UP 53.1%46.9% DOWN
Medium50.0%110 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentDOWN53.7%
UP 46.3%53.7% DOWN
Medium52.7%110 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN54.0%
UP 46.0%54.0% DOWN
Medium46.4%110 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.0%110 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low48.2%110 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.4%
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Low39.1%110 marketsWIN

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:45:00 UTC

07:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps63,859.73ok
  • Coinbase−0.3 bps63,858.12ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+1.4 bps63,868.46ok
Median of 3 sources$63,859.73

Settlement · 07:50:00 UTC

07:50:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.9 bps63,797.27ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps63,802.96ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.8 bps63,808.06ok
Median of 3 sources$63,802.96

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:40 → 07:45Nov 1564,022.7463,859.73DOWN5 / 9 UPUP53.7%LOSS
07:35 → 07:40Nov 1564,214.1264,022.74DOWN7 / 9 UPUP51.4%LOSS
07:30 → 07:35Nov 1564,314.9164,214.12DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN52.9%WIN
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1564,403.1064,314.91DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1564,421.4864,403.10DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1564,402.9564,421.48UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 1564,455.1064,402.95DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 1564,313.1964,455.10UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 1564,425.5964,313.19DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 1564,356.0464,425.59UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%LOSS
06:50 → 06:55Nov 1564,444.0664,356.04DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.5%WIN
06:45 → 06:50Nov 1564,480.2364,444.06DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.7%110 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent50.0%110 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent48.2%110 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent52.7%110 mkts
  5. 5RSI Divergence Agent50.0%110 mkts
  6. 6Momentum Agent49.1%110 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology