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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

07:30 → 07:35 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled07:30 → 07:35 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0730

Settled

Nov 15, 07:35:00 UTC

Price to beat

$64,314.91
Index at 07:30:00

Final index

$64,214.12

Settlement price

$64,214.12
Index at 07:35:00

Outcome

DOWN
Immutable record
64,198.4264,246.7064,294.9764,343.2507:3007:3107:3207:3307:35PTB 64,314.91

Settlement $64,214.12

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsWIN
DOWN52.9%Low
UP 47.1%52.9% DOWN
Historical accuracy
44.2%
104 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 07:30:06 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 07:30:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN57.5%
UP 42.5%57.5% DOWN
Medium51.9%104 marketsWIN
Momentum AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Medium48.1%104 marketsWIN
Mean Reversion AgentUP51.4%
UP 51.4%48.6% DOWN
Medium49.0%104 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN54.4%
UP 45.6%54.4% DOWN
Medium49.0%104 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN51.1%
UP 48.9%51.1% DOWN
Low52.9%104 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentUP53.0%
UP 53.0%47.0% DOWN
Medium45.2%104 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low51.0%104 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.2%
UP 49.8%50.2% DOWN
Low47.1%104 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low38.5%104 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 07:30:00 UTC

07:30:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+0.4 bps64,317.53ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps64,314.91ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.1 bps64,314.06ok
Median of 3 sources$64,314.91

Settlement · 07:35:00 UTC

07:35:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.7 bps64,209.75ok
  • Coinbase+0.1 bps64,214.57ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps64,214.12ok
Median of 3 sources$64,214.12

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
07:25 → 07:30Nov 1564,403.1064,314.91DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.5%WIN
07:20 → 07:25Nov 1564,421.4864,403.10DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%WIN
07:15 → 07:20Nov 1564,402.9564,421.48UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.2%LOSS
07:10 → 07:15Nov 1564,455.1064,402.95DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.1%WIN
07:05 → 07:10Nov 1564,313.1964,455.10UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.0%LOSS
07:00 → 07:05Nov 1564,425.5964,313.19DOWN5 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.3%WIN
06:55 → 07:00Nov 1564,356.0464,425.59UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN63.5%LOSS
06:50 → 06:55Nov 1564,444.0664,356.04DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.5%WIN
06:45 → 06:50Nov 1564,480.2364,444.06DOWN6 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.2%WIN
06:40 → 06:45Nov 1564,385.2964,480.23UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN57.4%LOSS
06:35 → 06:40Nov 1564,378.9864,385.29UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.5%LOSS
06:30 → 06:35Nov 1564,498.6264,378.98DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.2%WIN

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent52.9%104 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent51.0%104 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent47.1%104 mkts
  4. 4Trend Agent51.9%104 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent49.0%104 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent49.0%104 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology