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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

09:05 → 09:10 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:05 → 09:10 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0905

Settled

Nov 15, 09:10:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,780.09
Index at 09:05:00

Final index

$65,821.81

Settlement price

$65,821.81
Index at 09:10:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,598.7965,712.7565,826.7265,940.6809:0509:0609:0709:0809:10PTB 65,780.09

Settlement $65,821.81

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN73.0%High
UP 27.0%73.0% DOWN
Historical accuracy
47.1%
136 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 09:05:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:05:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN63.6%
UP 36.4%63.6% DOWN
High52.2%136 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN57.3%
UP 42.7%57.3% DOWN
Medium52.2%136 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN66.2%
UP 33.8%66.2% DOWN
High50.0%136 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN58.6%
UP 41.4%58.6% DOWN
Medium49.3%136 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.8%
UP 50.8%49.2% DOWN
Low53.7%136 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN59.0%
UP 41.0%59.0% DOWN
Medium47.8%136 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low50.0%136 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.3%
UP 49.7%50.3% DOWN
Low48.5%136 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Low40.4%136 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:05:00 UTC

09:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,780.09ok
  • Coinbase−0.5 bps65,776.79ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.1 bps65,780.78ok
Median of 3 sources$65,780.09

Settlement · 09:10:00 UTC

09:10:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.6 bps65,818.12ok
  • Coinbase+0.9 bps65,827.94ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,821.81ok
Median of 3 sources$65,821.81

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:00 → 09:05Nov 1565,205.7365,780.09UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 1564,725.4765,205.73UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 1564,672.0964,725.47UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.5%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 1564,700.3264,672.09DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1564,597.2364,700.32UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1564,667.6564,597.23DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1564,463.6364,667.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1564,274.9264,463.63UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1563,873.9964,274.92UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1563,855.7163,873.99UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%LOSS
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564,048.8763,855.71DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564,036.9064,048.87UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.7%136 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent50.0%136 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent48.5%136 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent52.2%136 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent52.2%136 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent49.3%136 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology