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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

09:00 → 09:05 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:00 → 09:05 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0900

Settled

Nov 15, 09:05:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,205.73
Index at 09:00:00

Final index

$65,780.09

Settlement price

$65,780.09
Index at 09:05:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,126.1365,337.1865,548.2265,759.2709:0009:0109:0209:0309:05PTB 65,205.73

Settlement $65,780.09

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN64.4%High
UP 35.6%64.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
46.3%
134 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 09:00:10 UTC

Base consensus

6 / 9 DOWN

66.7% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:00:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN56.6%
UP 43.4%56.6% DOWN
Medium51.5%134 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium51.5%134 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN59.4%
UP 40.6%59.4% DOWN
Medium49.3%134 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium48.5%134 marketsLOSS
Order Flow AgentUP50.9%
UP 50.9%49.1% DOWN
Low53.7%134 marketsWIN
Volatility AgentDOWN58.5%
UP 41.5%58.5% DOWN
Medium47.0%134 marketsLOSS
Liquidation AgentUP52.2%
UP 52.2%47.8% DOWN
Low49.3%134 marketsWIN
OI/Funding AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Low47.8%134 marketsWIN
Whale Flow AgentDOWN51.2%
UP 48.8%51.2% DOWN
Low41.0%134 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:00:00 UTC

09:00:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD+1.8 bps65,217.63ok
  • Coinbase−5.2 bps65,172.01ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,205.73ok
Median of 3 sources$65,205.73

Settlement · 09:05:00 UTC

09:05:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,780.09ok
  • Coinbase−0.5 bps65,776.79ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.1 bps65,780.78ok
Median of 3 sources$65,780.09

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
08:55 → 09:00Nov 1564,725.4765,205.73UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 1564,672.0964,725.47UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.5%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 1564,700.3264,672.09DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1564,597.2364,700.32UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%LOSS
08:35 → 08:40Nov 1564,667.6564,597.23DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.6%WIN
08:30 → 08:35Nov 1564,463.6364,667.65UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%LOSS
08:25 → 08:30Nov 1564,274.9264,463.63UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN60.9%LOSS
08:20 → 08:25Nov 1563,873.9964,274.92UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN59.6%LOSS
08:15 → 08:20Nov 1563,855.7163,873.99UP8 / 9 DOWNDOWN61.2%LOSS
08:10 → 08:15Nov 1564,048.8763,855.71DOWN9 / 9 DOWNDOWN67.9%WIN
08:05 → 08:10Nov 1564,036.9064,048.87UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN62.0%LOSS
08:00 → 08:05Nov 1563,972.4864,036.90UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN55.1%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.7%134 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent49.3%134 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent47.8%134 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent51.5%134 mkts
  5. 5Mean Reversion Agent49.3%134 mkts
  6. 6Trend Agent51.5%134 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology