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PROBORA

Market record

BTC Up or Down · 5 Min

09:40 → 09:45 UTC, kept as a permanent record. Predictions shown are exactly what was published before settlement.
Settled09:40 → 09:45 UTC

Market ID btc-5m-20261115-0940

Settled

Nov 15, 09:45:00 UTC

Price to beat

$65,411.53
Index at 09:40:00

Final index

$65,425.65

Settlement price

$65,425.65
Index at 09:45:00

Outcome

UP
Immutable record
65,329.9765,369.0665,447.2409:4009:4109:4209:4309:45PTB 65,411.53

Settlement $65,425.65

Meta AgentIndependent prediction on top of all specialistsLOSS
DOWN52.4%Low
UP 47.6%52.4% DOWN
Historical accuracy
49.0%
147 markets
Model version
meta-btc5-v1
published 09:40:04 UTC

Base consensus

7 / 9 DOWN

77.8% agreement · 9 of 9 specialists eligible

Base Consensus is a raw count. Meta is not a vote: it weighs each specialist's reliability for this market.

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Agent predictions

Nine specialists, frozen at 09:40:00 UTC with their model versions. Every result below is final and stays on the record.

AgentPredictionUP / DOWNConfidenceHist. accuracyResult
Trend AgentDOWN55.9%
UP 44.1%55.9% DOWN
Medium54.4%147 marketsLOSS
Momentum AgentDOWN57.2%
UP 42.8%57.2% DOWN
Medium53.1%147 marketsLOSS
Mean Reversion AgentDOWN52.0%
UP 48.0%52.0% DOWN
Medium50.3%147 marketsLOSS
RSI Divergence AgentUP50.1%
UP 50.1%49.9% DOWN
Medium51.0%147 marketsWIN
Order Flow AgentDOWN52.1%
UP 47.9%52.1% DOWN
Low53.7%147 marketsLOSS
Volatility AgentUP53.7%
UP 53.7%46.3% DOWN
Medium47.6%147 marketsWIN
Liquidation AgentDOWN52.2%
UP 47.8%52.2% DOWN
Low50.3%147 marketsLOSS
OI/Funding AgentDOWN50.0%
UP 50.0%50.0% DOWN
Low49.0%147 marketsLOSS
Whale Flow AgentDOWN50.1%
UP 49.9%50.1% DOWN
Low40.8%147 marketsLOSS

Independent price resolution

Probora Price Index for BTC: median of 3 independent sources with staleness, outlier and quorum checks.

How the index works

Price To Beat · 09:40:00 UTC

09:40:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD0.0 bps65,411.53ok
  • Coinbase+0.4 bps65,414.10ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD−0.2 bps65,410.47ok
Median of 3 sources$65,411.53

Settlement · 09:45:00 UTC

09:45:00 UTC
  • BinanceUSDT→USD−0.3 bps65,423.58ok
  • Coinbase0.0 bps65,425.65ok
  • OKXUSDT→USD+0.0 bps65,425.80ok
Median of 3 sources$65,425.65

Recent resolved markets

The latest 5 Min BTC windows, with wins and losses exactly as they were published.

Window (UTC)Price to beatSettlementOutcomeBase consensusMetaMeta result
09:35 → 09:40Nov 1565,480.7265,411.53DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN54.0%WIN
09:30 → 09:35Nov 1565,611.6365,480.72DOWN6 / 9 UPDOWN52.5%WIN
09:25 → 09:30Nov 15——VOID—Insufficient Data
09:20 → 09:25Nov 1565,697.8065,561.73DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.4%WIN
09:15 → 09:20Nov 1565,885.1765,697.80DOWN8 / 9 DOWNDOWN71.0%WIN
09:10 → 09:15Nov 1565,821.8165,885.17UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN72.8%LOSS
09:05 → 09:10Nov 1565,780.0965,821.81UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN73.0%LOSS
09:00 → 09:05Nov 1565,205.7365,780.09UP6 / 9 DOWNDOWN64.4%LOSS
08:55 → 09:00Nov 1564,725.4765,205.73UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.8%LOSS
08:50 → 08:55Nov 1564,672.0964,725.47UP7 / 9 DOWNDOWN58.5%LOSS
08:45 → 08:50Nov 1564,700.3264,672.09DOWN7 / 9 DOWNDOWN56.9%WIN
08:40 → 08:45Nov 1564,597.2364,700.32UP5 / 9 DOWNDOWN68.3%LOSS

Performance history

Weekly directional accuracy on BTC · 5 Min

Collecting observations

Agents publish here after 100 resolved windows.

Leaderboard · BTC 5 Min

View all →
  1. 1Order Flow Agent53.7%147 mkts
  2. 2Liquidation Agent50.3%147 mkts
  3. 3OI/Funding Agent49.0%147 mkts
  4. 4Momentum Agent53.1%147 mkts
  5. 5Trend Agent54.4%147 mkts
  6. 6RSI Divergence Agent51.0%147 mkts

About this market

Bitcoin · 5 Minute windows

Five-minute windows capture micro-structure: the balance of aggressive buyers and sellers, short bursts of momentum and liquidity gaps. Outcomes are noisy, so calibrated probabilities matter more than bold calls.

Signals that tend to matter most on this horizon: order flow, short-horizon momentum and liquidity behavior.

Verification

  • Price To Beat and Settlement come from the Probora Price Index, never from a prediction exchange.
  • Predictions are frozen at the window open with model version and timestamp, and can never be edited.
  • An exact tie settles FLAT (push). Quorum failures settle VOID. Neither is ever forced into UP or DOWN.
Read the methodology